PDXAFDMFR (07/20/08 0901)

FXUS66 KMFR 201601
AFDMFR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
850 AM PDT SUN JUL 20 2008

.DISCUSSION...THE WATER VAPOR CHANNEL SHOWS A LOW FORMING NEAR
130W. THE NAM HINTS AT POSSIBLE THUNDER AS EARLY AS THIS EVENING
BUT THE GFS AND ECMWF SAY NO. THE WATER VAPOR IMAGE DOES SUGGEST
THE LOW AND MOISTURE ARE TOO FAR AWAY FOR THE NAM TO BE CORRECT.

WITH SLIGHTLY ON SHORE FLOW LOW CLOUDS SHOULD REFORM TONIGHT AT
THE COAST AND PENETRATE INLAND ABOUT 20 MILES. THEY WILL BURN OFF
QUICKLY MONDAY MORNING. 

MONDAY THE LOW DEEPENS TO 578DM IN ALL THREE MODELS. THE TRAJECTORIES
ARE THE SAME FOR THE GFS AND ECMWF WITH THE NAM PLACING THE LOW
FURTHER SOUTHWEST BY TUESDAY MORNING. STARTING MONDAY AFTERNOON 
THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP OVER MOST OF OUR AREA EXCLUDING THE
COAST AND WILL LIKELY CONTINUE TO WELL AFTER DARK. TUESDAY AFTERNOON
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY SHOULD BE LOCATED EAST OF THE CASCADES ENDING
IN THE EVENING AND THE LOW FILLS AND SHIFTS INTO EASTERN OREGON.

WEDNESDAY ONWARD THE UPPER RIDGE SLOWLY BUILDS OVER THE INTER
MOUNTAIN REGION. THIS WILL KEEP OUR REGION DRY BUT TEMPERATURES
WILL REMAIN VERY CLOSE TO NORMAL. 


&&

.AVIATION...IFR AT THE COAST THROUGH LATE MORNING BEFORE LOW
CLOUDS BURN OFF. VFR INLAND. IFR CIGS REFORMING ALONG THE COAST
LATE TONIGHT AS THE LOW LEVEL FLOW REMAINS SLIGHTLY ON SHORE.


&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.

CA...NONE.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 1 AM 
     PDT FRIDAY FOR PZZ356.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 1 AM PDT FRIDAY 
     FOR PZZ356.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 11 
     PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR PZZ350-PZZ370.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS FROM 2 PM THIS 
     AFTERNOON TO 11 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR PZZ350-PZZ370.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 2 PM PDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR PZZ376.
     HAZARDOUS SEAS WARNING UNTIL 2 PM PDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR PZZ376.



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