B120 (05/08/13 1410)
April-July Forecast April Percent 80% thru of Probability July Average Range -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- NORTH COAST Trinity River at Lewiston Lake 260 40% 210 - 360 Scott River near Fort Jones 85 47% SACRAMENTO RIVER Sacramento River above Shasta Lake 120 40% McCloud River above Shasta Lake 260 66% Pit River above Shasta Lake 710 68% Total inflow to Shasta Lake 1090 60% 860 - 1490 Sacramento River above Bend Bridge 1450 58% 1150 - 1980 Feather River at Oroville 830 47% 560 - 1240 Yuba River at Smartsville 380 38% 240 - 530 American River below Folsom Lake 500 41% 330 - 700 SAN JOAQUIN RIVER Cosumnes River at Michigan Bar 28 22% 25 - 65 Mokelumne River inflow to Pardee 210 46% 180 - 260 Stanislaus River below Goodwin Res. 360 52% 270 - 460 Tuolumne River below La Grange 650 53% 550 - 820 Merced River below Merced Falls 260 41% 200 - 370 San Joaquin River inflow to Millerton Lk 490 39% 340 - 660 TULARE LAKE Kings River below Pine Flat Res. 430 35% 330 - 550 Kaweah River below Terminus Res. 83 29% 55 - 140 Tule River below Lake Success 8 13% 6 - 25 Kern River inflow to Lake Isabella 85 18% 60 - 150 NORTH LAHONTAN Truckee River,Tahoe to Farad accretions 74 29% Lake Tahoe Rise, in feet 0.4 29% West Carson River at Woodfords 25 47% East Carson River near Gardnerville 95 51% West Walker River below Little Walker 81 52% East Walker River near Bridgeport 21 33% Water-Year (WY) Forecast and Monthly Distribution Oct Water 80% WY thru Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Year Probability % Jan Range Avg -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Trinity, Lewiston 344 68 119 167 65 23 5 3 1 795 742 - 900 58 Inflow to Shasta 1862 339 415 413 285 210 182 165 159 4030 3685 - 4520 67 Sacramento, Bend 2667 469 543 566 385 270 229 191 190 5510 5085 - 6175 63 Feather, Oroville 1583 234 415 351 270 127 82 71 62 3195 2840 - 3655 71 Yuba, Smartville 832 103 173 189 130 45 16 9 8 1505 1355 - 1665 65 American, Folsom 853 109 217 241 200 50 9 0 1 1680 1505 - 1885 63 Cosumnes, Mich.Bar 97 15 22 20 6 2 0 0 0 162 159 - 200 42 Mokelumne, Pardee 142 25 52 98 90 20 2 1 0 430 400 - 485 57 Stanislaus, Gdw. 195 42 86 131 145 70 14 4 3 690 595 - 800 59 Tuolumne, LaGrange 302 49 126 232 265 130 23 6 2 1135 1030 - 1320 58 Merced, McClure 124 25 58 123 85 42 10 3 0 470 410 - 590 47 San Joaquin, Mil. 178 45 96 190 185 90 25 11 5 825 665 - 1010 45 Kings, Pine Flat 124 36 77 164 175 70 21 7 6 680 565 - 820 39 Kaweah, Terminus 36 13 20 34 36 10 3 2 1 155 120 - 220 34 Tule, Success 15 5 6 4 3 1 0 0 0 34 32 - 53 23 Kern, Isabella 58 17 24 34 25 18 8 6 5 195 165 - 270 27 Notes: 50 year averages are based on years 1961 to 2010. Unimpaired runoff represents the natural water production of a river basin, unaltered by upsteam diversions, storage, or by export or import of water to or from other watersheds. Groundwater changes due to human activity or not considered. Forecasted runoff assumes median conditions subsequent to the date of forecast. Runoff probability ranges are statistically derived from historical data. The 80% probability range is comprised of the 90% exceedance level value and the 10% exceedance level value. The actual runoff should fall within the stated limits eight times out of ten. Forecast point names are based on USGS gage names. For more information please contact: John King (916) 574-2637 John.J.King@water.ca.gov Steve Nemeth (916) 574-2634 Stephen.Nemeth@water.ca.gov Dave Rizzardo (916) 574-2983 David.Rizzardo@water.ca.gov Andy Reising (916) 574-2181 Andrew.Reising@water.ca.gov
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