B120UP.200805 (05/29/08 1447)
DEPARTMENT OF WATER RESOURCES
California Cooperative Snow Surveys
WATER SUPPLY FORECAST UPDATE
2008 April-July Unimpaired Runoff (1,000 Acre-feet)
May 1 %Avg May 13 %Avg May 20 %Avg May 27 %Avg
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Shasta Lake, total inflow 1819
90% Exceedence 1110 61% 1020 56% 1030 57% 1080 59%
50% Exceedence 1350 74% 1200 66% 1190 65% 1200 66%
10% Exceedence 1750 96% 1530 84% 1480 81% 1450 80%
Feather River at Oroville 1782
90% Exceedence 900 51% 830 47% 880 49% 930 52%
50% Exceedence 1180 66% 1040 58% 1040 58% 1050 59%
10% Exceedence 1590 89% 1370 77% 1320 74% 1280 72%
Yuba River near Smartville 1006
90% Exceedence 490 49% 510 51% 520 52% 540 54%
50% Exceedence 630 63% 620 62% 620 62% 620 62%
10% Exceedence 780 78% 750 75% 730 73% 720 72%
American River, below Folsom Lake 1240
90% Exceedence 590 48% 610 49% 620 50% 630 51%
50% Exceedence 760 61% 750 60% 730 59% 730 59%
10% Exceedence 960 77% 910 73% 860 69% 860 69%
Mokelumne River, inflow to Pardee Reservoir 461
90% Exceedence 250 54% 240 52% 230 50% 240 52%
50% Exceedence 290 63% 280 61% 270 59% 280 61%
10% Exceedence 340 74% 330 72% 320 69% 330 72%
Stanislaus River, below Goodwin Res. (blw New Melones) 702
90% Exceedence 410 58% 420 60% 420 60% 420 60%
50% Exceedence 500 71% 490 70% 480 68% 490 70%
10% Exceedence 600 85% 570 81% 550 78% 560 80%
Tuolumne River, below La Grange Res. (blw Don Pedro) 1220
90% Exceedence 770 63% 770 63% 770 63% 750 61%
50% Exceedence 870 71% 850 70% 840 69% 840 69%
10% Exceedence 1040 85% 990 81% 970 80% 950 78%
Merced River, below Merced Falls (below Lake McClure) 632
90% Exceedence 340 54% 350 55% 350 55% 350 55%
50% Exceedence 400 63% 400 63% 400 63% 400 63%
10% Exceedence 510 81% 480 76% 470 74% 470 74%
San Joaquin River, below Millerton Lake 1254
90% Exceedence 730 58% 740 59% 750 60% 750 60%
50% Exceedence 880 70% 870 69% 870 69% 880 70%
10% Exceedence 1050 84% 1010 81% 1000 80% 1010 81%
Kings River, below Pine Flat Reservoir 1224
90% Exceedence 850 69% 850 69% 860 70% 860 70%
50% Exceedence 970 79% 960 78% 960 78% 970 79%
10% Exceedence 1110 91% 1080 88% 1070 87% 1080 88%
Kaweah River, below Terminus Reservoir 286
90% Exceedence 190 66% 180 63% 180 63% 180 63%
50% Exceedence 230 80% 220 77% 220 77% 220 77%
10% Exceedence 290 101% 270 94% 270 94% 260 91%
Tule River, below Lake Success 64
90% Exceedence 29 46% 28 44% 25 39% 25 39%
50% Exceedence 37 58% 36 57% 32 50% 32 50%
10% Exceedence 59 93% 48 76% 41 65% 39 61%
Kern River, inflow to Isabella Lake 461
90% Exceedence 270 59% 270 59% 270 59% 270 59%
50% Exceedence 330 72% 330 72% 320 69% 320 69%
10% Exceedence 400 87% 390 85% 380 82% 370 80%
Questions regarding this forecast:
John King: (916) 574-2637 (e-mail kingjj@water.ca.gov)
Steve Nemeth: (916) 574-2224 (e-mail nemeth@water.ca.gov)
Dave Rizzardo: (916) 574-2983 (e-mail daver@water.ca.gov)
Andy Reising at (916) 574-2181 (e-mail areising@water.ca.gov)
Adam Schneider at (916) 574-2208 (e-mail aschneid@water.ca.gov)
Runoff forecasts are unimpaired (full natural) flows which represent the
natural water production of the river basin, unaltered by upstream diversions,
storage, or export or import of water to or from other watersheds.
The median (50%) forecast assumes median conditions after the date of forecast.
Runoff exceedence levels are derived from historical data.
The 90 percent exceedence level and the 10 percent exceedence level together
comprise a range about the median forecast in which the actual runoff should
fall 8 times out of 10.
Forecasts are stated in 1,000's of acre-feet and percent of (50-year) average.
The averages are for the period 1956 to 2005.