B120UP.200802 (02/28/08 1238)
DEPARTMENT OF WATER RESOURCES
California Cooperative Snow Surveys
WATER SUPPLY FORECAST UPDATE
2008 April-July Unimpaired Runoff (1,000 Acre-feet)
Feb 1 %Avg Feb 12 %Avg Feb 19 %Avg Feb 26 %Avg
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Shasta Lake, total inflow average = 1819
90% Exceedence 1190 65% 1200 66% 1150 63% 1240 68%
50% Exceedence 1650 91% 1650 91% 1600 88% 1680 92%
10% Exceedence 2650 146% 2610 143% 2540 140% 2590 142%
Feather River at Oroville average = 1782
90% Exceedence 870 49% 970 54% 930 52% 1130 63%
50% Exceedence 1570 88% 1640 92% 1580 89% 1750 98%
10% Exceedence 3010 169% 2970 167% 2840 159% 2940 165%
Yuba River near Smartville average = 1006
90% Exceedence 470 47% 490 49% 460 46% 540 54%
50% Exceedence 870 87% 870 87% 830 83% 900 89%
10% Exceedence 1560 155% 1510 150% 1450 144% 1490 148%
American River, below Folsom Lake average = 1240
90% Exceedence 600 48% 670 54% 640 52% 790 64%
50% Exceedence 1150 93% 1190 96% 1140 92% 1260 102%
10% Exceedence 2170 175% 2140 173% 2040 165% 2120 171%
Mokelumne River, inflow to Pardee Reservoir average = 461
90% Exceedence 310 67% 320 69% 300 65% 350 76%
50% Exceedence 450 98% 450 98% 430 93% 470 102%
10% Exceedence 750 163% 730 158% 690 150% 720 156%
Stanislaus River, below Goodwin Res. (blw New Melones) average = 702
90% Exceedence 440 63% 470 67% 460 66% 530 75%
50% Exceedence 670 95% 680 97% 650 93% 710 101%
10% Exceedence 1130 161% 1110 158% 1070 152% 1110 158%
Tuolumne River, below La Grange Res. (blw Don Pedro) average = 1220
90% Exceedence 790 65% 830 68% 810 66% 960 79%
50% Exceedence 1180 97% 1170 96% 1120 92% 1240 102%
10% Exceedence 1970 162% 1900 156% 1800 148% 1880 154%
Merced River, below Merced Falls (below Lake McClure) average = 632
90% Exceedence 400 63% 420 66% 400 63% 480 76%
50% Exceedence 580 92% 580 92% 550 87% 620 98%
10% Exceedence 1090 172% 1030 163% 960 152% 990 157%
San Joaquin River, below Millerton Lake average = 1254
90% Exceedence 850 68% 870 69% 830 66% 1010 81%
50% Exceedence 1210 97% 1200 96% 1140 91% 1300 104%
10% Exceedence 2030 162% 1940 155% 1830 146% 1930 154%
Kings River, below Pine Flat Reservoir average = 1224
90% Exceedence 800 65% 850 69% 820 67% 1010 83%
50% Exceedence 1200 98% 1200 98% 1150 94% 1310 107%
10% Exceedence 2000 163% 1920 157% 1820 149% 1930 158%
Kaweah River, below Terminus Reservoir average = 286
90% Exceedence 170 59% 190 66% 190 66% 250 87%
50% Exceedence 270 94% 280 98% 270 94% 320 112%
10% Exceedence 510 178% 500 175% 470 164% 510 178%
Tule River, below Lake Success average = 64
90% Exceedence 29 46% 35 55% 33 52% 46 72%
50% Exceedence 55 87% 60 94% 57 90% 68 107%
10% Exceedence 145 228% 144 227% 137 216% 144 227%
Kern River, inflow to Isabella Lake average = 461
90% Exceedence 280 61% 310 67% 300 65% 380 82%
50% Exceedence 430 93% 450 98% 430 93% 500 108%
10% Exceedence 910 197% 860 186% 800 173% 820 178%
Questions regarding this forecast:
John King: (916) 574-2636 (e-mail kingjj@water.ca.gov)
Steve Nemeth: (916) 574-2224 (e-mail nemeth@water.ca.gov)
Dave Rizzardo: (916) 574-2983 (e-mail daver@water.ca.gov)
Andy Reising at (916) 574-2181 (e-mail areising@water.ca.gov)
Adam Schneider at (916) 574-2208 (e-mail aschneid@water.ca.gov)
Runoff forecasts are unimpaired (full natural) flows which represent the
natural water production of the river basin, unaltered by upstream diversions,
storage, or export or import of water to or from other watersheds.
The median (50%) forecast assumes median conditions after the date of forecast.
Runoff exceedence levels are derived from historical data.
The 90 percent exceedence level and the 10 percent exceedence level together
comprise a range about the median forecast in which the actual runoff should
fall 8 times out of 10.
Forecasts are stated in 1,000's of acre-feet and percent of (50-year) average.
The averages are for the period 1956 to 2005.