B120UP.200503 (03/17/05 1135)
DEPARTMENT OF WATER RESOURCES
California Cooperative Snow Surveys
WATER SUPPLY FORECAST UPDATE
2005 April-July Unimpaired Runoff (1,000 Acre-feet)
Mar 1 %Avg Mar 15 %Avg
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Shasta Lake, total inflow average = 1849
90% Exceedence 1120 61% 1090 59%
50% Exceedence 1540 83% 1450 78%
10% Exceedence 2330 126% 2180 118%
Feather River at Oroville average = 1870
90% Exceedence 1090 58% 1030 55%
50% Exceedence 1500 80% 1360 73%
10% Exceedence 2460 132% 2250 120%
Yuba River near Smartville average = 1044
90% Exceedence 670 64% 650 62%
50% Exceedence 960 92% 870 83%
10% Exceedence 1510 145% 1370 131%
American River, below Folsom Lake average = 1282
90% Exceedence 910 71% 880 69%
50% Exceedence 1330 104% 1220 95%
10% Exceedence 1980 154% 1795 140%
Mokelumne River, inflow to Pardee Reservoir average = 469
90% Exceedence 440 94% 430 92%
50% Exceedence 560 119% 530 113%
10% Exceedence 780 166% 700 149%
Stanislaus River, below Goodwin Res. (blw New Melones) average = 716
90% Exceedence 700 98% 680 95%
50% Exceedence 900 126% 860 120%
10% Exceedence 1160 162% 1100 154%
Tuolumne River, below La Grange Res. (blw Don Pedro) average = 1230
90% Exceedence 1310 106% 1280 104%
50% Exceedence 1590 129% 1510 123%
10% Exceedence 2030 165% 1900 154%
Merced River, below Merced Falls (below Lake McClure) average = 633
90% Exceedence 740 117% 720 114%
50% Exceedence 870 137% 820 129%
10% Exceedence 1090 172% 1020 161%
San Joaquin River, below Millerton Lake average = 1262
90% Exceedence 1400 111% 1370 109%
50% Exceedence 1720 136% 1610 128%
10% Exceedence 2180 173% 1995 158%
Kings River, below Pine Flat Reservoir average = 1234
90% Exceedence 1300 105% 1270 103%
50% Exceedence 1620 131% 1500 122%
10% Exceedence 2080 169% 1850 150%
Kaweah River, below Terminus Reservoir average = 290
90% Exceedence 295 102% 280 97%
50% Exceedence 360 124% 330 114%
10% Exceedence 505 174% 445 154%
Tule River, below Lake Success average = 65
90% Exceedence 40 62% 35 54%
50% Exceedence 70 108% 60 93%
10% Exceedence 115 177% 95 146%
Kern River, inflow to Isabella Lake average = 470
90% Exceedence 470 100% 450 96%
50% Exceedence 580 124% 530 113%
10% Exceedence 840 179% 740 158%
Questions regarding this forecast:
Call (916) 574-2617 (e-mail daver@water.ca.gov)
or (916) 574-2634 (e-mail nemeth@water.ca.gov)
or (916) 574-2637 (e-mail kingjj@water.ca.gov)
Runoff forecasts are unimpaired (full natural) flows which represent the
natural water production of the river basin, unaltered by upstream diversions,
storage, or export or import of water to or from other watersheds.
The median (50%) forecast assumes median conditions after the date of forecast.
Runoff exceedence levels are derived from historical data.
The 90 percent exceedence level and the 10 percent exceedence level together
comprise a range about the median forecast in which the actual runoff should
fall 8 times out of 10.
Forecasts are stated in 1,000's of acre-feet and percent of (50-year) average.
The averages are for the period 1951 to 2000.