B120.200802 (02/11/08 1509)
Department of Water Resources
California Cooperative Snow Surveys
Feb 1, 2008 FORECAST
OF UNIMPAIRED RUNOFF
(in thousands of acre-feet)
April-July Forecast
April Percent 80%
thru of Probability
July Average Range
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
NORTH COAST
Trinity River at Lewiston Lake 730 112%
Scott River near Fort Jones 205 103%
SACRAMENTO RIVER
Sacramento River above Shasta Lake 290 97%
McCloud River above Shasta Lake 380 97%
Pit River above Shasta Lake 950 89%
Total inflow to Shasta Lake 1650 91% 1190 - 2650
Sacramento River above Bend Bridge 2190 88% 1490 - 3860
Feather River at Oroville 1570 88% 870 - 3010
Yuba River at Smartville 870 87% 470 - 1560
American River below Folsom Lake 1150 93% 600 - 2170
SAN JOAQUIN RIVER
Cosumnes River at Michigan Bar 115 91% 45 - 295
Mokelumne River inflow to Pardee 450 98% 310 - 750
Stanislaus River below Goodwin Res. 670 95% 440 - 1130
Tuolumne River below La Grange 1180 97% 790 - 1970
Merced River below Merced Falls 580 92% 400 - 1090
San Joaquin River inflow to Millerton Lk 1210 97% 850 - 2030
TULARE LAKE
Kings River below Pine Flat Res. 1200 98% 800 - 2000
Kaweah River below Terminus Res. 270 94% 170 - 510
Tule River below Lake Success 55 87% 29 - 145
Kern River inflow to Lake Isabella 430 93% 280 - 910
NORTH LAHONTAN
Truckee River,Tahoe to Farad accretions 220 84%
Lake Tahoe Rise, in feet 1.1 80%
West Carson River at Woodfords 45 83%
East Carson River near Gardnerville 175 94%
West Walker River below Little Walker 150 97%
East Walker River near Bridgeport 60 94%
Water-Year Forecast and Monthly Distribution
Oct Aug Water 80%
thru Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul & Year Probability
Jan Sep Range
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Inflow to Shasta 1335 660 680 610 490 305 245 420 4745 3820 - 6815
Sacramento, Bend 2010 1065 1070 840 640 400 310 530 6865 5560 - 9690
Feather, Oroville 500 480 540 610 550 270 140 180 3270 2215 - 5860
Yuba, Smartville 225 200 270 340 360 130 40 45 1610 1000 - 2685
American, Folsom 205 230 320 410 440 250 50 29 1934 1175 - 3525
Cosumnes, Mich.Bar 30 50 57 56 41 15 3 1 253 115 - 605
Mokelumne, Pardee 25 55 75 125 190 120 15 5 610 420 - 1010
Stanislaus, Gdw. 75 75 110 190 260 170 50 15 945 660 - 1510
Tuolumne, LaGrange 110 120 170 280 460 350 90 30 1610 1110 - 2580
Merced, McClure 55 60 90 150 220 160 50 23 808 570 - 1480
San Joaquin, Mil. 95 110 150 235 445 390 140 80 1645 1170 - 2630
Kings, Pine Flat 85 70 120 230 440 390 140 55 1530 1040 - 2500
Kaweah, Terminus 31 25 40 65 105 75 25 8 374 240 - 680
Tule, Success 16 13 19 22 20 10 3 1 104 60 - 250
Kern, Isabella 55 30 50 85 145 130 70 35 600 400 - 1210
Notes:
50 year averages are based on years 1956 to 2005.
Unimpaired runoff represents the natural water production of a river basin,
unaltered by upsteam diversions, storage, or by export or import of water
to or from other watersheds.
Forecasted runoff assumes median conditions subsequent to the date of forecast.
Runoff probability ranges are statistically derived from historical data.
The 80% probability range is comprised of the 90% exceedence level value
and the 10% exceedence level value.
The actual runoff should fall within the stated limits eight times out of ten.
Forecast point names are based on USGS gage names.
For more information please contact:
John King at (916) 574-2636 kingjj@water.ca.gov
Steve Nemeth at (916) 574-2224 nemeth@water.ca.gov
Dave Rizzardo at (916) 574-2983 daver@water.ca.gov
Andy Reising at (916) 574-2181 areising@water.ca.gov
Adam Schneider at (916) 574-2208 aschneid@water.ca.gov