B120.200703 (04/02/07 1620)
Department of Water Resources
California Cooperative Snow Surveys
Mar 1, 2007 FORECAST
OF UNIMPAIRED RUNOFF
(in thousands of acre-feet)
April-July Forecast
April Percent 80%
thru of Probability
July Average Range
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NORTH COAST
Trinity River at Lewiston Lake 480 73%
Scott River near Fort Jones 135 68%
SACRAMENTO RIVER
Sacramento River above Shasta Lake 220 74%
McCloud River above Shasta Lake 340 87%
Pit River above Shasta Lake 880 83%
Total inflow to Shasta Lake 1550 85% 1040 - 2350
Sacramento River above Bend Bridge 2020 81% 1360 - 3130
Feather River at Oroville 1090 61% 740 - 1900
Yuba River at Smartville 680 68% 440 - 1180
American River below Folsom Lake 850 69% 540 - 1390
SAN JOAQUIN RIVER
Cosumnes River at Michigan Bar 75 60% 40 - 175
Mokelumne River inflow to Pardee 330 72% 210 - 550
Stanislaus River below Goodwin Res. 480 68% 290 - 780
Tuolumne River below La Grange 850 70% 550 - 1320
Merced River below Merced Falls 390 62% 250 - 690
San Joaquin River inflow to Millerton Lk 770 61% 460 - 1280
TULARE LAKE
Kings River below Pine Flat Res. 720 59% 420 - 1190
Kaweah River below Terminus Res. 155 54% 110 - 295
Tule River below Lake Success 31 49% 18 - 74
Kern River inflow to Lake Isabella 210 46% 135 - 460
NORTH LAHONTAN
Truckee River,Tahoe to Farad accretions 160 61%
Lake Tahoe Rise, in feet 0.9 65%
West Carson River at Woodfords 36 66%
East Carson River near Gardnerville 120 64%
West Walker River below Little Walker 90 58%
East Walker River near Bridgeport 33 52%
Water-Year Forecast and Monthly Distribution
Oct Aug Water 80%
thru Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul & Year Probability
Jan Sep Range
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Inflow to Shasta 1330 610 600 580 470 280 220 380 4470 3795 - 5775
Sacramento, Bend 1880 910 1010 770 610 370 270 470 6290 5320 - 7890
Feather, Oroville 685 460 410 475 360 160 95 135 2780 2225 - 3740
Yuba, Smartville 265 250 230 260 290 105 25 25 1450 1090 - 2130
American, Folsom 210 260 280 310 365 150 25 10 1610 1150 - 2405
Cosumnes, Mich.Bar 25 35 60 40 26 7 2 2 197 125 - 365
Mokelumne, Pardee 55 45 65 100 150 70 10 2 497 350 - 770
Stanislaus, Gdw. 85 80 95 140 200 110 30 10 750 530 - 1140
Tuolumne, LaGrange 85 95 170 210 330 250 60 15 1215 860 - 1830
Merced, McClure 40 40 70 110 160 100 20 5 545 370 - 910
San Joaquin, Mil. 85 45 105 165 280 230 95 40 1045 690 - 1670
Kings, Pine Flat 85 35 85 150 275 220 75 35 960 640 - 1580
Kaweah, Terminus 23 12 31 40 70 35 10 5 226 170 - 400
Tule, Success 11 6 15 14 11 5 1 2 65 50 - 140
Kern, Isabella 75 20 35 50 75 65 20 25 365 260 - 690
Notes:
50 year averages are based on years 1956 to 2005.
Unimpaired runoff represents the natural water production of a river basin,
unaltered by upsteam diversions, storage, or by export or import of water
to or from other watersheds.
Forecasted runoff assumes median conditions subsequent to the date of forecast.
Runoff probability ranges are statistically derived from historical data.
The 80% probability range is comprised of the 90% exceedence level value
and the 10% exceedence level value.
The actual runoff should fall within the stated limits eight times out of ten.
Forecast point names are based on USGS gage names.
For more information please contact:
John King at (916) 574-2637 kingjj@water.ca.gov
Steve Nemeth at (916) 574-2634 nemeth@water.ca.gov
Dave Rizzardo at (916) 574-2617 daver@water.ca.gov