B120.200603 (03/08/06 1221)
Department of Water Resources
California Cooperative Snow Surveys
Mar 1, 2006 FORECAST
OF UNIMPAIRED RUNOFF
(in thousands of acre-feet)
April-July Forecast
April Percent 80%
thru of Probability
July Average Range
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NORTH COAST
Trinity River at Lewiston Lake 720 109%
Scott River near Fort Jones 200 100%
SACRAMENTO RIVER
Sacramento River above Shasta Lake 300 100%
McCloud River above Shasta Lake 440 110%
Pit River above Shasta Lake 1120 103%
Total inflow to Shasta Lake 1960 106% 1430 - 2730
Sacramento River above Bend Bridge 2580 102% 1850 - 3790
Feather River at Oroville 1600 86% 1060 - 2560
Yuba River at Smartville 910 87% 570 - 1460
American River below Folsom Lake 1150 90% 710 - 1860
SAN JOAQUIN RIVER
Cosumnes River at Michigan Bar 105 81% 55 - 205
Mokelumne River inflow to Pardee 490 105% 360 - 720
Stanislaus River below Goodwin Res. 780 109% 580 - 1100
Tuolumne River below La Grange 1310 106% 1030 - 1800
Merced River below Merced Falls 650 103% 530 - 950
San Joaquin River inflow to Millerton Lk 1270 101% 920 - 1780
TULARE LAKE
Kings River below Pine Flat Res. 1210 98% 890 - 1670
Kaweah River below Terminus Res. 235 81% 155 - 380
Tule River below Lake Success 37 57% 19 - 79
Kern River inflow to Lake Isabella 370 79% 250 - 610
NORTH LAHONTAN
Truckee River,Tahoe to Farad accretions 250 92%
Lake Tahoe Rise, in feet 1.2 83%
West Carson River at Woodfords 67 120%
East Carson River near Gardnerville 225 118%
West Walker River below Little Walker 200 130%
East Walker River near Bridgeport 90 138%
Water-Year Forecast and Monthly Distribution
Oct Aug Water 80%
thru Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul & Year Probability
Jan Sep Range
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Inflow to Shasta 3125 825 900 770 580 360 250 400 7210 6325 - 8495
Sacramento, Bend 5125 1335 1240 1050 730 470 330 525 10805 9575 - 12845
Feather, Oroville 2625 725 525 630 550 280 140 190 5665 4880 - 7055
Yuba, Smartville 1435 405 280 340 350 170 50 45 3075 2650 - 3825
American, Folsom 1515 475 340 380 480 240 50 25 3505 2920 - 4440
Cosumnes, Mich.Bar 208 60 60 55 35 13 2 2 435 355 - 595
Mokelumne, Pardee 280 85 75 130 210 130 20 10 940 780 - 1210
Stanislaus, Gdw. 445 135 110 220 300 200 60 20 1490 1270 - 1880
Tuolumne, LaGrange 530 150 170 300 490 410 110 30 2190 1870 - 2800
Merced, McClure 210 75 80 150 270 180 50 15 1030 890 - 1420
San Joaquin, Mil. 315 110 115 230 460 410 170 60 1870 1470 - 2460
Kings, Pine Flat 245 80 95 210 440 400 160 50 1680 1310 - 2200
Kaweah, Terminus 77 26 35 55 90 70 20 8 381 280 - 560
Tule, Success 32 7 15 15 14 6 2 2 93 65 - 155
Kern, Isabella 125 35 40 85 130 110 45 35 605 450 - 900
Notes:
50 year averages are based on years 1951 to 2000.
Unimpaired runoff represents the natural water production of a river basin,
unaltered by upsteam diversions, storage, or by export or import of water
to or from other watersheds.
Forecasted runoff assumes median conditions subsequent to the date of forecast.
Runoff probability ranges are statistically derived from historical data.
The 80% probability range is comprised of the 90% exceedence level value
and the 10% exceedence level value.
The actual runoff should fall within the stated limits eight times out of ten.
Forecast point names are based on USGS gage names.
For more information please contact:
Steve Nemeth at (916) 574-2634 nemeth@water.ca.gov
Dave Rizzardo at (916) 574-2617 daver@water.ca.gov
John King at (916) 574-2637 kingjj@water.ca.gov