B120UP (06/11/09 1059)
DEPARTMENT OF WATER RESOURCES
California Cooperative Snow Surveys
WATER SUPPLY FORECAST UPDATE
2009 April-July Unimpaired Runoff (1,000 Acre-feet)
Jun 2 %Avg Jun 9 %Avg
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Shasta Lake, Total Inflow average = 1819
90% Exceedance 1440 79% 1470 81%
50% Exceedance 1500 82% 1540 85%
10% Exceedance 1720 95% 1740 96%
Sacramento River, above Bend Bridge (near Red Bluff) average = 2494
90% Exceedance 1860 75% 1890 76%
50% Exceedance 2010 81% 2040 82%
10% Exceedance 2320 93% 2320 93%
Feather River at Oroville average = 1782
90% Exceedance 1180 66% 1210 68%
50% Exceedance 1270 71% 1300 73%
10% Exceedance 1470 83% 1480 83%
Yuba River near Smartsville average = 1006
90% Exceedance 790 79% 800 80%
50% Exceedance 870 87% 860 86%
10% Exceedance 960 95% 940 93%
American River, below Folsom Lake average = 1240
90% Exceedance 970 78% 980 79%
50% Exceedance 1080 87% 1060 85%
10% Exceedance 1200 97% 1170 94%
Mokelumne River, Inflow to Pardee Reservoir average = 461
90% Exceedance 370 80% 390 85%
50% Exceedance 410 89% 410 89%
10% Exceedance 460 100% 450 98%
Stanislaus River, below Goodwin Res. (blw New Melones) average = 702
90% Exceedance 580 83% 590 84%
50% Exceedance 630 90% 630 90%
10% Exceedance 680 97% 670 95%
Tuolumne River, below La Grange Res. (blw Don Pedro) average = 1220
90% Exceedance 1000 82% 1010 83%
50% Exceedance 1100 90% 1100 90%
10% Exceedance 1200 98% 1190 98%
Merced River, below Merced Falls (blw Lake McClure) average = 632
90% Exceedance 500 79% 510 81%
50% Exceedance 530 84% 540 85%
10% Exceedance 570 90% 580 92%
San Joaquin River, below Millerton Lake average = 1254
90% Exceedance 890 71% 910 73%
50% Exceedance 950 76% 970 77%
10% Exceedance 1020 81% 1040 83%
Kings River, below Pine Flat Reservoir average = 1224
90% Exceedance 830 68% 870 71%
50% Exceedance 910 74% 930 76%
10% Exceedance 1000 82% 1010 83%
Kaweah River, below Terminus Reservoir average = 286
90% Exceedance 180 63% 180 63%
50% Exceedance 200 70% 200 70%
10% Exceedance 220 77% 220 77%
Tule River, below Lake Success average = 64
90% Exceedance 25 39% 27 43%
50% Exceedance 28 44% 29 46%
10% Exceedance 37 58% 37 58%
Kern River, inflow to Isabella Lake average = 461
90% Exceedance 240 52% 250 54%
50% Exceedance 270 59% 280 61%
10% Exceedance 300 65% 310 67%
Questions regarding this forecast:
John King: (916) 574-2637 (e-mail kingjj@water.ca.gov)
Steve Nemeth: (916) 574-2634 (e-mail nemeth@water.ca.gov)
Dave Rizzardo: (916) 574-2983 (e-mail daver@water.ca.gov)
Andy Reising: (916) 574-2181 (e-mail areising@water.ca.gov)
Adam Schneider: (916) 574-2208 (e-mail aschneid@water.ca.gov)
Runoff forecasts are unimpaired (full natural) flows which represent the
natural water production of the river basin, unaltered by upstream diversions,
storage, or export or import of water to or from other watersheds.
The median (50%) forecast assumes median conditions after the date of forecast.
Runoff exceedance levels are derived from historical data.
The 90 percent exceedance level and the 10 percent exceedance level together
comprise a range about the median forecast in which the actual runoff should
fall 8 times out of 10.
Forecasts are stated in 1,000's of acre-feet and percent of (50-year) average.
The averages are for the period 1956 to 2005.
