SFOAFDMTR (06/28/16 1447)

FXUS66 KMTR 282146
AFDMTR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Francisco Bay Area
246 PM PDT TUE JUN 28 2016

.SYNOPSIS...High pressure over the region will result in
continued very warm and dry inland conditions through midweek.
Some cooling is anticipated late in the week and more so into the
weekend, especially over inland areas. Dry weather and near
seasonal temperatures are likely for the Forth of July Holiday
Weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...as of 2:45 PM PDT Tuesday...Current observed
temperatures are ranging wildly this afternoon with 97F at
Livermore and 59F at Monterey. Several unofficial sensors are
also reporting temperatures at or above 100F throughout the inland
vallies to the north, east, and south of the Bay Area. This large
temperature gradient is the result of a broad 595DM ridge over the
Four Corners region warming from the east and cool marine air
cooling from the west, with a thermal trough in between. As of
2PM, temperatures are 2 to 6 degrees cooler than this time
yesterday with slightly more cooling seen further inland than near
the coast.

Visible satellite shows a thinly veiled marine layer across much
of coastal California this afternoon. Portions of this layer will
mix out into the afternoon before the layer deepens slightly late this
evening before pushing inland overnight. Patchy dense fog and
drizzle will again be possible for coastal areas tomorrow morning,
as well as all of the remaining mornings of this week. 

The Four Corners ridge is modeled to gradually become flat and
weakened over the central CONUS through the remainder of the
week. Temperatures will cool aloft as a result and lead to a
cooling trend at the surface with temperatures bottoming out on
Saturday. Temperatures will shift from the above average to
below average from today to Saturday by a few to several degrees
with the largest difference seen further inland. 

Locally, the models show a relatively quiet pattern through the
next several days. A weak mean trough with an unimpressive
embedded disturbance will form over California/Oregon late in the
week into early next week as high pressure rebuilds over the
central CONUS. This will likely lead to moderated near normal
values and fair weather for Sunday and beyond.



&&

.AVIATION...as of 11:10 AM PDT Tuesday...Mostly clear skies are
being reported at the terminals this morning. The current visible
satellite image is also showing mostly clear skies over land with
stratus just off shore. According to the Fort Ord profiler and san
Francisco Exploratorium's radiometer the marine layer is right
around 1200 feet deep. With gentle onshore flow expect the marine
layer to deepen and impact the terminals overnight. 

Vicinity of KSFO...VFR conditions are expected to prevail through
0900Z at which point cigs bkn008 are expected to begin impact the
terminal. First guess at morning burnoff is 1730Z Wednesday
morning. West winds are expected to reach 24 kt this afternoon
with gusts to 32 kt possible. 

Confidence is moderate.  

SFO Bridge Approach...Similar to KSFO.

Monterey Bay Terminals...VFR conditions are expected to prevail
today with cigs returning around 3330Z at KMRY and 0700Z at KSNS.
Westerly winds are expected to reach 8 kt at KMRY and 14 kt at
KSNS. 

Confidence is moderate. 

&&

.MARINE...as of 02:15 PM PDT Tuesday...A strong surface pressure
gradient will maintain gusty northwesterly winds across a majority
of the coastal waters into the weekend. these winds will also
result in large, steep seas through late week. a long period
southerly swell will also move into the waters through midweek.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .Tngt...SCA...Pt Reyes to Pigeon Pt 0-10 nm
             SCA...Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 0-10 nm
             SCA...Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 0-10 nm
             SCA...Pt Arena to Pigeon Pt 10-60 nm
             SCA...Pigeon Pt to Pt Piedras Blancas 10-60 nm
             SCA...Pt Pinos to Pt Piedras Blancas 0-10 nm
             SCA...SF Bay until 8 PM

&&


PUBLIC FORECAST: DRP AVIATION: Larry MARINE: Larry Visit us at www.weather.gov/sanfrancisco Follow us on Facebook and twitter at: www.Facebook.com/nwsbayarea www.twitter.com/nwsbayarea