SFOAFDMTR (08/27/16 1057)

FXUS66 KMTR 271756

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Francisco Bay Area
1056 AM PDT SAT AUG 27 2016

.SYNOPSIS...Very little change is expected through at least the
middle of next week. Temperatures will be near or slightly below
normal through the period. Areas of night and morning low clouds
will give way to sunny skies by midday for inland areas. Most
coastal areas will continue to see widespread low cloud cover
persist through the daytime hours.


.DISCUSSION...as of 09:10 AM PDT Saturday...Deep marine layer over
the region in excess of 2,500 feet in depth has allowed for
blanket of low clouds to cover the region. With cloud bases
generally in the 1,500 to 1,800 foot range, do expect burn-off to
occur through late morning giving way to mostly sunny conditions
inland this afternoon. Overall, conditions should be similar to
those yesterday with most inland areas seeing temperatures below
seasonal averages and near normal at the coast. Have adjusted the
sky cover to reflect current satellite trends. Otherwise, no
major changes needed to the forecast this morning.


.PREV DISCUSSION...As of 3:00 AM PDT Saturday...Broken record
forecast as we approach the final week of August. After countless
days of widespread morning clouds with mostly mild daytime
temperatures, look for little change at least through the middle
of next week. At the surface the flow continues to be moderately
onshore while the marine layer is still in excess of 2,500 feet
these two factors will produce more cooler than normal readings.

A ridge of high pressure will start to build into our region over
the next several days which will help to bring some warming
especially for inland regions. Spots will away from the coast will
increase 3 to 7 degrees with widespread upper 70s to upper 80s
forecast. Coastal areas will generally be in the 60s to lower 70s.
Hot weather will be confined to southern Monterey and San Benito
counties with 90s to lower 100s anticipated. Smoke is expected to
mostly stay confined south of the San Francisco Bay Region and Santa
Clara County.

Longer range models flip to a trough pattern for the second half
of next week and keep that in place going into the following week.
Models are in disagreement with the depth of the trough however
there is general agreement that we will see another drop in
temperatures which could last through the first week in September.
The bulk of any rain should remain to our north.


.AVIATION...as of 11:00 AM PDT Saturday...MVFR cigs across the
board with higher based marine stratus deck in place. Marine
stratus will retreat from inland valleys through the next 2 hours.
Generally light southerly/southwest winds this morning shifting to
onshore winds along the coast by the afternoon. The marine layer
will compress and result in lower ceilings for tonight as a result
of short wave ridging developing into Sunday.

Vicinity of KSFO...MVFR cigs through 1845Z.

SFO Bridge Approach...Similar to KSFO.

Monterey Bay Terminals...MVFR through 19-20Z. Southerly winds may
wrap stratus around the northern lip of the Monterey Bay into the
early afternoon.  


.MARINE...as of 10:51 AM PDT Saturday...Generally light wind and
seas through the weekend. Increasing northwest winds by early
next week. A mixed short period northwest swell and a long period
southerly swell will continue to impact the coastal waters.


     .Tday...SCA...SF Bay from 2 PM


PUBLIC FORECAST: RGass AVIATION: DRP MARINE: DRP Visit us at www.weather.gov/sanfrancisco Follow us on Facebook and twitter at: www.Facebook.com/nwsbayarea www.twitter.com/nwsbayarea