SFOAFDMTR (07/28/16 2031)

FXUS66 KMTR 290330
AFDMTR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Francisco Bay Area
830 PM PDT THU JUL 28 2016

.SYNOPSIS...Smokey skies and very warm and dry conditions will
persist inland through Friday. Meanwhile, at the coast smokey
skies and cool conditions will continue through the weekend. A
region- wide cooling trend remains on track for the upcoming
weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...as of 8:30 PM PDT Thursday...Plenty of smoke is
being reported to us via social media this evening as the
Soberanes Fire continues to burn. We even got a report via
FaceBook of smoke in Yosemite. The current visible satellite
image is showing the smoke pushing west near the surface into
interior Monterey and San Benito counties, while southerly winds
aloft are pushing the smoke north into the Bay area.

Stratus has moved into the Monterey area for the night as the
marine layer remains around 1200 feet deep this evening. The
marine layer will provide cool temperatures and moist conditions
for lower elevations around the area. However, the 0000Z KOAK
sounding continues to show a temperature inversion above 1500
feet of around 85 degrees. This warm temperature inversion will
maintain warm dry conditions overnight for the higher elevations
around the area.

The 1200Z ECMWF and 1800Z GFS20 have initialized well with the
current synoptic weather pattern and remain in good agreement
through the middle of next week. Both models maintain a ridge of
high pressure centered over the Desert Southwest tomorrow. However
a low pressure system pushing into the Pacific Northwest begins to
offset the Desert Southwest high, initiating a cooling trend for
our area beginning Saturday and persisting into the middle of
next week. The current forecast package handles this cooling
trend well and no updates are needed at this time.

One trend that we need to keep an eye on is the direction and
magnitude of the surface wind through about 10,000 feet. The
winds within this layer dictate the direction that the Soberanes
Fire smoke will move. It currently looks like winds within this
layer will become more southerly on Friday which will influence
the smoke to push in more of a northern direction than observed
today. Therefore have adjusted the weather grid to spread the
smoke northward into the San Jose and southern portions of the
East Bay.

&&

.AVIATION...as of 5:00 PM PDT Thursday...Smoke from the Soberanes
fire continues to impact the region this afternoon however it
appears that it is staying high enough that it is not currently
affecting the terminal vsbys. The marine layer remains compressed
and hence we will see cigs return late to select airports similar
to last night.

Vicinity of KSFO...VFR conditions expected through the forecast
period over KSFO. On the other side of the bay KOAK will see cigs
return early Friday morning around 11z.

SFO Bridge Approach...Similar to KSFO.

Monterey Bay Terminals...Smoke from the Soberanes Fire will
continue to linger aloft over the Monterey Bay area tonight. LIFR
to VLIFR cigs/vsbys anticipated to make an early return around 03z
this evening. 

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...as of 3:55 AM PDT Thursday...Smoke is still
lingering around the fire district today as transport winds remain
relatively light with varying directions through the vertical.
Tomorrow smoke transport winds in the Monterey area look to become
more from the south direction. This may bring more smoke to
Salinas and Monterey as well as into the Santa Clara Valley. The
marine layer mixed out a bit today but according to the Fort Ord
profiler it is holding steady at 800 to 1000 feet. Low clouds are
anticipated to return to Monterey airport by around 0300Z this
evening.

&&

.MARINE...as of 03:32 PM PDT Thursday...Light to moderate north
winds will continue over the coastal waters today. Winds will be
strongest over the northern outer waters and north of the Bay
Bridge. A mixed swell will continue in the coastal waters. A longer
period southwest swell arrives later in the week as a tropical
storm weakens.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .Tngt...SCA...SF Bay until 3 AM
             SCA...Pt Arena to Pigeon Pt 10-60 nm until 3 AM

&&


PUBLIC FORECAST: Larry AVIATION: CW MARINE: DRP FIRE WEATHER: Sims Visit us at www.weather.gov/sanfrancisco Follow us on Facebook and twitter at: www.Facebook.com/nwsbayarea www.twitter.com/nwsbayarea