B120UP (06/30/11 1522)
DEPARTMENT OF WATER RESOURCES
California Cooperative Snow Surveys
WATER SUPPLY FORECAST UPDATE
2011 April-July Unimpaired Runoff (1,000 Acre-feet)
May 31 %Avg Jun 7 %Avg Jun 14 %Avg Jun 21 %Avg Jun 29 %Avg
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Shasta Lake, Total Inflow average = 1819
90% Exceedance 2430 134% 2490 137% 2480 136% 2470 136% 2490 137%
50% Exceedance 2600 143% 2650 146% 2630 145% 2610 143% 2620 144%
10% Exceedance 2830 156% 2860 157% 2820 155% 2790 153% 2780 153%
Sacramento River, above Bend Bridge (near Red Bluff) average = 2494
90% Exceedance 3330 134% 3430 138% 3430 138% 3420 137% 3460 139%
50% Exceedance 3560 143% 3650 146% 3630 146% 3610 145% 3630 146%
10% Exceedance 3880 156% 3940 158% 3890 156% 3850 154% 3840 154%
Feather River at Oroville average = 1782
90% Exceedance 3080 173% 3160 177% 3160 177% 3150 177% 3210 180%
50% Exceedance 3250 182% 3320 186% 3320 186% 3300 185% 3350 188%
10% Exceedance 3460 194% 3510 197% 3490 196% 3450 194% 3480 195%
Yuba River near Smartsville average = 1006
90% Exceedance 1800 179% 1870 186% 1870 186% 1860 185% 1880 187%
50% Exceedance 1870 186% 1940 193% 1930 192% 1920 191% 1930 192%
10% Exceedance 1950 194% 2010 200% 2000 199% 1980 197% 1980 197%
American River, below Folsom Lake average = 1240
90% Exceedance 2130 172% 2240 181% 2240 181% 2240 181% 2260 182%
50% Exceedance 2210 178% 2320 187% 2310 186% 2310 186% 2320 187%
10% Exceedance 2300 185% 2400 194% 2390 193% 2380 192% 2380 192%
Mokelumne River, Inflow to Pardee Reservoir average = 461
90% Exceedance 730 158% 760 165% 760 165% 760 165% 820 178%
50% Exceedance 750 163% 780 169% 780 169% 780 169% 840 182%
10% Exceedance 790 171% 810 176% 810 176% 810 176% 860 187%
Stanislaus River, below Goodwin Res. (blw New Melones) average = 702
90% Exceedance 1130 161% 1170 167% 1170 167% 1170 167% 1210 172%
50% Exceedance 1170 167% 1200 171% 1200 171% 1200 171% 1240 177%
10% Exceedance 1220 174% 1240 177% 1240 177% 1230 175% 1270 181%
Tuolumne River, below La Grange Res. (blw Don Pedro) average = 1220
90% Exceedance 2010 165% 2080 171% 2070 170% 2050 168% 2050 168%
50% Exceedance 2070 170% 2130 175% 2120 174% 2100 172% 2100 172%
10% Exceedance 2170 178% 2220 182% 2200 180% 2170 178% 2160 177%
Merced River, below Merced Falls (blw Lake McClure) average = 632
90% Exceedance 1040 165% 1070 169% 1070 169% 1070 169% 1070 169%
50% Exceedance 1070 169% 1100 174% 1100 174% 1100 174% 1100 174%
10% Exceedance 1110 176% 1140 180% 1140 180% 1130 179% 1130 179%
San Joaquin River, below Millerton Lake average = 1254
90% Exceedance 2120 169% 2170 173% 2150 171% 2130 170% 2140 171%
50% Exceedance 2190 175% 2240 179% 2210 176% 2190 175% 2190 175%
10% Exceedance 2250 179% 2300 183% 2270 181% 2250 179% 2250 179%
Kings River, below Pine Flat Reservoir average = 1224
90% Exceedance 2060 168% 2110 172% 2130 174% 2160 177% 2180 178%
50% Exceedance 2130 174% 2180 178% 2190 179% 2220 181% 2230 182%
10% Exceedance 2200 180% 2250 184% 2250 184% 2280 186% 2280 186%
Kaweah River, below Terminus Reservoir average = 286
90% Exceedance 480 168% 490 171% 490 171% 490 171% 500 175%
50% Exceedance 500 175% 510 178% 510 178% 510 178% 515 180%
10% Exceedance 520 182% 530 185% 530 185% 530 185% 530 185%
Tule River, below Lake Success average = 64
90% Exceedance 114 179% 114 179% 114 179% 116 183% 116 183%
50% Exceedance 120 189% 120 189% 120 189% 120 189% 120 189%
10% Exceedance 129 203% 128 202% 128 202% 127 200% 126 198%
Kern River, inflow to Isabella Lake average = 461
90% Exceedance 850 184% 870 189% 870 189% 870 189% 870 189%
50% Exceedance 880 191% 890 193% 890 193% 890 193% 890 193%
10% Exceedance 910 197% 920 199% 920 199% 910 197% 910 197%
Questions regarding this forecast:
John King: (916) 574-2637 (e-mail kingjj@water.ca.gov)
Steve Nemeth: (916) 574-2634 (e-mail nemeth@water.ca.gov)
Dave Rizzardo: (916) 574-2983 (e-mail daver@water.ca.gov)
Andy Reising: (916) 574-2181 (e-mail areising@water.ca.gov)
Runoff forecasts are unimpaired (full natural) flows which represent the
natural water production of the river basin, unaltered by upstream diversions,
storage, or export or import of water to or from other watersheds.
The median (50%) forecast assumes median conditions after the date of forecast.
Runoff exceedance levels are derived from historical data.
The 90 percent exceedance level and the 10 percent exceedance level together
comprise a range about the median forecast in which the actual runoff should
fall 8 times out of 10.
Forecasts are stated in 1,000's of acre-feet and percent of (50-year) average.
The averages are for the period 1956 to 2005.
