B120UP.200505 (05/26/05 1255)
DEPARTMENT OF WATER RESOURCES
California Cooperative Snow Surveys
WATER SUPPLY FORECAST UPDATE
2005 April-July Unimpaired Runoff (1,000 Acre-feet)
May 1 %Avg May 10 %Avg May 17 %Avg May 24 %Avg
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Shasta Lake, total inflow average = 1849
90% Exceedence 1490 81% 1890 102% 2040 110% 2290 124%
50% Exceedence 1710 92% 2100 114% 2240 121% 2480 134%
10% Exceedence 2010 109% 2380 129% 2500 135% 2730 148%
Feather River at Oroville 1870
90% Exceedence 1510 81% 1740 93% 1780 95% 2030 109%
50% Exceedence 1730 93% 1950 104% 1980 106% 2220 119%
10% Exceedence 2050 110% 2230 119% 2240 120% 2450 131%
Yuba River near Smartville 1044
90% Exceedence 970 93% 1100 105% 1140 109% 1330 127%
50% Exceedence 1080 103% 1200 115% 1230 118% 1410 135%
10% Exceedence 1240 119% 1330 127% 1350 129% 1520 146%
American River, below Folsom Lake 1282
90% Exceedence 1360 106% 1510 118% 1590 124% 1690 132%
50% Exceedence 1500 117% 1630 127% 1700 133% 1790 140%
10% Exceedence 1690 132% 1780 139% 1830 143% 1910 149%
Mokelumne River, inflow to Pardee Reservoir 469
90% Exceedence 560 119% 610 130% 650 139% 645 138%
50% Exceedence 600 128% 650 139% 690 147% 680 145%
10% Exceedence 670 143% 710 151% 750 160% 735 157%
Stanislaus River, below Goodwin Res. (blw New Melones) 716
90% Exceedence 880 123% 970 136% 1040 145% 1035 145%
50% Exceedence 970 136% 1040 145% 1100 154% 1090 152%
10% Exceedence 1070 149% 1130 158% 1180 165% 1165 163%
Tuolumne River, below La Grange Res. (blw Don Pedro) 1230
90% Exceedence 1660 135% 1780 145% 1840 150% 1850 150%
50% Exceedence 1750 142% 1860 151% 1920 156% 1920 156%
10% Exceedence 1910 155% 2000 163% 2050 167% 2040 166%
Merced River, below Merced Falls (below Lake McClure) 633
90% Exceedence 880 139% 960 152% 1000 158% 990 156%
50% Exceedence 940 148% 1000 158% 1040 164% 1030 163%
10% Exceedence 1020 161% 1070 169% 1100 174% 1080 171%
San Joaquin River, below Millerton Lake 1262
90% Exceedence 1700 135% 1840 146% 1890 150% 1870 148%
50% Exceedence 1810 143% 1940 154% 1980 157% 1950 155%
10% Exceedence 1940 154% 2050 162% 2070 164% 2030 161%
Kings River, below Pine Flat Reservoir 1234
90% Exceedence 1640 133% 1780 144% 1800 146% 1790 145%
50% Exceedence 1720 139% 1860 151% 1890 153% 1870 152%
10% Exceedence 1830 148% 1960 159% 1980 160% 1950 158%
Kaweah River, below Terminus Reservoir 290
90% Exceedence 360 124% 380 131% 385 133% 380 131%
50% Exceedence 380 131% 400 138% 410 142% 400 138%
10% Exceedence 420 145% 435 150% 440 152% 430 148%
Tule River, below Lake Success 65
90% Exceedence 70 108% 79 122% 81 125% 79 122%
50% Exceedence 78 120% 85 131% 87 134% 85 131%
10% Exceedence 92 142% 98 151% 99 153% 95 146%
Kern River, inflow to Isabella Lake 470
90% Exceedence 610 130% 680 145% 700 149% 690 147%
50% Exceedence 650 138% 710 151% 730 155% 720 153%
10% Exceedence 720 153% 760 162% 770 164% 760 162%
Questions regarding this forecast:
Call (916) 574-2617 (e-mail daver@water.ca.gov)
or (916) 574-2634 (e-mail nemeth@water.ca.gov)
or (916) 574-2637 (e-mail kingjj@water.ca.gov)
Runoff forecasts are unimpaired (full natural) flows which represent the
natural water production of the river basin, unaltered by upstream diversions,
storage, or export or import of water to or from other watersheds.
The median (50%) forecast assumes median conditions after the date of forecast.
Runoff exceedence levels are derived from historical data.
The 90 percent exceedence level and the 10 percent exceedence level together
comprise a range about the median forecast in which the actual runoff should
fall 8 times out of 10.
Forecasts are stated in 1,000's of acre-feet and percent of (50-year) average.
The averages are for the period 1951 to 2000.
