B120UP (04/24/08 1008)
DEPARTMENT OF WATER RESOURCES
California Cooperative Snow Surveys
WATER SUPPLY FORECAST UPDATE
2008 April-July Unimpaired Runoff (1,000 Acre-feet)
Apr 1 %Avg Apr 8 %Avg Apr 15 %Avg Apr 22 %Avg
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Shasta Lake, total inflow average = 1819
90% Exceedence 1210 67% 1190 65% 1160 64% 1130 62%
50% Exceedence 1560 86% 1510 83% 1450 80% 1400 77%
10% Exceedence 2360 130% 2220 122% 2060 113% 1920 106%
Feather River at Oroville average = 1782
90% Exceedence 980 55% 970 54% 940 53% 950 53%
50% Exceedence 1360 76% 1320 74% 1270 71% 1250 70%
10% Exceedence 2210 124% 2070 116% 1910 107% 1790 100%
Yuba River near Smartville average = 1006
90% Exceedence 540 54% 530 53% 520 52% 520 52%
50% Exceedence 810 81% 780 78% 740 74% 710 71%
10% Exceedence 1210 120% 1120 111% 1020 101% 940 93%
American River, below Folsom Lake average = 1240
90% Exceedence 660 53% 650 52% 630 51% 630 51%
50% Exceedence 940 76% 900 73% 860 69% 830 67%
10% Exceedence 1590 128% 1450 117% 1300 105% 1170 94%
Mokelumne River, inflow to Pardee Reservoir average = 461
90% Exceedence 290 63% 280 61% 270 59% 260 56%
50% Exceedence 370 80% 350 76% 330 72% 310 67%
10% Exceedence 520 113% 480 104% 430 93% 390 85%
Stanislaus River, below Goodwin Res. (blw New Melones) average = 702
90% Exceedence 450 64% 440 63% 430 61% 420 60%
50% Exceedence 590 84% 570 81% 550 78% 530 75%
10% Exceedence 840 120% 790 113% 730 104% 680 97%
Tuolumne River, below La Grange Res. (blw Don Pedro) average = 1220
90% Exceedence 840 69% 830 68% 800 66% 790 65%
50% Exceedence 1010 83% 980 80% 940 77% 910 75%
10% Exceedence 1400 115% 1320 108% 1230 101% 1150 94%
Merced River, below Merced Falls (below Lake McClure) average = 632
90% Exceedence 390 62% 380 60% 370 59% 360 57%
50% Exceedence 490 78% 470 74% 450 71% 430 68%
10% Exceedence 730 115% 680 108% 630 100% 580 92%
San Joaquin River, below Millerton Lake average = 1254
90% Exceedence 830 66% 810 65% 780 62% 760 61%
50% Exceedence 1040 83% 1010 81% 970 77% 940 75%
10% Exceedence 1380 110% 1310 104% 1230 98% 1160 93%
Kings River, below Pine Flat Reservoir average = 1224
90% Exceedence 920 75% 900 74% 890 73% 870 71%
50% Exceedence 1100 90% 1070 87% 1040 85% 1010 83%
10% Exceedence 1400 114% 1330 109% 1250 102% 1180 96%
Kaweah River, below Terminus Reservoir average = 286
90% Exceedence 210 73% 200 70% 200 70% 190 66%
50% Exceedence 260 91% 250 87% 240 84% 230 80%
10% Exceedence 380 133% 360 126% 330 115% 310 108%
Tule River, below Lake Success average = 64
90% Exceedence 32 50% 31 49% 31 49% 31 49%
50% Exceedence 46 72% 43 68% 41 65% 39 61%
10% Exceedence 96 151% 86 135% 78 123% 69 109%
Kern River, inflow to Isabella Lake average = 461
90% Exceedence 300 65% 290 63% 280 61% 280 61%
50% Exceedence 380 82% 370 80% 350 76% 340 74%
10% Exceedence 500 108% 480 104% 450 98% 420 91%
Questions regarding this forecast:
John King: (916) 574-2637 (e-mail kingjj@water.ca.gov)
Steve Nemeth: (916) 574-2224 (e-mail nemeth@water.ca.gov)
Dave Rizzardo: (916) 574-2983 (e-mail daver@water.ca.gov)
Andy Reising at (916) 574-2181 (e-mail areising@water.ca.gov)
Adam Schneider at (916) 574-2208 (e-mail aschneid@water.ca.gov)
Runoff forecasts are unimpaired (full natural) flows which represent the
natural water production of the river basin, unaltered by upstream diversions,
storage, or export or import of water to or from other watersheds.
The median (50%) forecast assumes median conditions after the date of forecast.
Runoff exceedence levels are derived from historical data.
The 90 percent exceedence level and the 10 percent exceedence level together
comprise a range about the median forecast in which the actual runoff should
fall 8 times out of 10.
Forecasts are stated in 1,000's of acre-feet and percent of (50-year) average.
The averages are for the period 1956 to 2005.
