B120.200702 (04/02/07 1620)
Department of Water Resources
California Cooperative Snow Surveys
Feb 1, 2007 FORECAST
OF UNIMPAIRED RUNOFF
(in thousands of acre-feet)
April-July Forecast
April Percent 80%
thru of Probability
July Average Range
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NORTH COAST
Trinity River at Lewiston Lake 380 58%
Scott River near Fort Jones 120 60%
SACRAMENTO RIVER
Sacramento River above Shasta Lake 210 70%
McCloud River above Shasta Lake 300 76%
Pit River above Shasta Lake 800 75%
Total inflow to Shasta Lake 1430 79% 870 - 2330
Sacramento River above Bend Bridge 1840 74% 1060 - 3090
Feather River at Oroville 800 45% 400 - 1730
Yuba River at Smartville 550 55% 300 - 1140
American River below Folsom Lake 660 53% 310 - 1290
SAN JOAQUIN RIVER
Cosumnes River at Michigan Bar 50 40% 15 - 180
Mokelumne River inflow to Pardee 270 59% 130 - 540
Stanislaus River below Goodwin Res. 380 54% 150 - 790
Tuolumne River below La Grange 730 60% 380 - 1330
Merced River below Merced Falls 360 57% 170 - 710
San Joaquin River inflow to Millerton Lk 730 58% 330 - 1380
TULARE LAKE
Kings River below Pine Flat Res. 690 56% 300 - 1290
Kaweah River below Terminus Res. 140 49% 70 - 325
Tule River below Lake Success 30 47% 10 - 90
Kern River inflow to Lake Isabella 220 48% 100 - 580
NORTH LAHONTAN
Truckee River,Tahoe to Farad accretions 120 46%
Lake Tahoe Rise, in feet 0.7 53%
West Carson River at Woodfords 30 55%
East Carson River near Gardnerville 100 53%
West Walker River below Little Walker 85 55%
East Walker River near Bridgeport 32 50%
Water-Year Forecast and Monthly Distribution
Oct Aug Water 80%
thru Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul & Year Probability
Jan Sep Range
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Inflow to Shasta 1330 500 600 540 415 270 205 380 4240 3100 - 6075
Sacramento, Bend 1880 760 900 730 530 335 245 470 5850 4450 - 7770
Feather, Oroville 685 290 400 295 285 135 85 135 2310 1570 - 3590
Yuba, Smartville 265 150 215 215 215 95 25 20 1200 790 - 2130
American, Folsom 210 150 240 240 255 140 25 10 1270 725 - 2240
Cosumnes, Mich.Bar 26 20 35 25 17 6 2 2 133 50 - 400
Mokelumne, Pardee 55 30 50 80 110 70 10 5 410 220 - 770
Stanislaus, Gdw. 85 45 90 110 160 90 20 10 610 310 - 1150
Tuolumne, LaGrange 85 75 135 180 290 205 55 15 1040 610 - 1830
Merced, McClure 40 35 65 100 150 90 20 10 510 260 - 970
San Joaquin, Mil. 85 45 95 155 260 225 90 40 995 530 - 1800
Kings, Pine Flat 85 40 75 145 250 220 75 35 925 480 - 1720
Kaweah, Terminus 23 13 23 37 55 38 10 5 204 110 - 450
Tule, Success 11 9 12 13 11 5 1 2 64 30 - 180
Kern, Isabella 75 20 30 50 75 70 25 25 370 200 - 860
Notes:
50 year averages are based on years 1956 to 2005.
Unimpaired runoff represents the natural water production of a river basin,
unaltered by upsteam diversions, storage, or by export or import of water
to or from other watersheds.
Forecasted runoff assumes median conditions subsequent to the date of forecast.
Runoff probability ranges are statistically derived from historical data.
The 80% probability range is comprised of the 90% exceedence level value
and the 10% exceedence level value.
The actual runoff should fall within the stated limits eight times out of ten.
Forecast point names are based on USGS gage names.
For more information please contact:
John King at (916) 574-2637 kingjj@water.ca.gov
Steve Nemeth at (916) 574-2634 nemeth@water.ca.gov
Dave Rizzardo at (916) 574-2617 daver@water.ca.gov
