B120.200605 (05/08/06 1605)
Department of Water Resources
California Cooperative Snow Surveys
May 1, 2006 FORECAST
OF UNIMPAIRED RUNOFF
(in thousands of acre-feet)
April-July Forecast
April Percent 80%
thru of Probability
July Average Range
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NORTH COAST
Trinity River at Lewiston Lake 1200 182%
Scott River near Fort Jones 320 160%
SACRAMENTO RIVER
Sacramento River above Shasta Lake 580 194%
McCloud River above Shasta Lake 740 185%
Pit River above Shasta Lake 1740 160%
Total inflow to Shasta Lake 3460 187% 3240 - 3790
Sacramento River above Bend Bridge 4950 196% 4630 - 5440
Feather River at Oroville 3370 180% 3100 - 3770
Yuba River at Smartville 1900 182% 1725 - 2060
American River below Folsom Lake 2440 190% 2300 - 2640
SAN JOAQUIN RIVER
Cosumnes River at Michigan Bar 430 332% 400 - 460
Mokelumne River inflow to Pardee 820 175% 780 - 890
Stanislaus River below Goodwin Res. 1310 183% 1240 - 1410
Tuolumne River below La Grange 2150 175% 2060 - 2300
Merced River below Merced Falls 1140 180% 1090 - 1240
San Joaquin River inflow to Millerton Lk 2180 173% 2080 - 2350
TULARE LAKE
Kings River below Pine Flat Res. 2080 169% 1980 - 2180
Kaweah River below Terminus Res. 480 166% 455 - 520
Tule River below Lake Success 125 193% 119 - 139
Kern River inflow to Lake Isabella 700 149% 670 - 750
NORTH LAHONTAN
Truckee River,Tahoe to Farad accretions 425 156%
Lake Tahoe Rise, in feet 2.3 159%
West Carson River at Woodfords 90 161%
East Carson River near Gardnerville 330 173%
West Walker River below Little Walker 270 176%
East Walker River near Bridgeport 140 214%
Water-Year Forecast and Monthly Distribution
Oct Aug Water 80%
thru Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul & Year Probability
Jan Sep Range
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Inflow to Shasta 3125 825 1380 1750 840 530 340 540 9330 9040 - 9725
Sacramento, Bend 5125 1335 2130 2810 1070 650 420 640 14180 13760 - 14780
Feather, Oroville 2625 725 1130 1705 950 490 225 235 8085 7745 - 8545
Yuba, Smartville 1435 405 495 815 630 350 105 70 4305 4105 - 4490
American, Folsom 1515 475 645 1255 690 400 95 90 5165 4990 - 5400
Cosumnes, Mich.Bar 208 60 159 315 85 20 10 3 860 825 - 895
Mokelumne, Pardee 280 85 140 290 270 220 40 20 1345 1300 - 1430
Stanislaus, Gdw. 445 135 240 480 430 300 100 50 2180 2080 - 2290
Tuolumne, LaGrange 530 150 300 610 680 660 200 100 3230 3110 - 3410
Merced, McClure 210 75 170 345 370 330 95 50 1645 1570 - 1770
San Joaquin, Mil. 315 110 200 495 680 660 345 170 2975 2820 - 3190
Kings, Pine Flat 245 80 155 400 660 680 340 160 2720 2610 - 2830
Kaweah, Terminus 77 26 61 140 170 130 40 24 668 640 - 720
Tule, Success 32 7 31 69 35 15 6 5 200 190 - 215
Kern, Isabella 125 35 60 145 240 225 90 70 990 950 - 1050
Notes:
50 year averages are based on years 1951 to 2000.
Unimpaired runoff represents the natural water production of a river basin,
unaltered by upsteam diversions, storage, or by export or import of water
to or from other watersheds.
Forecasted runoff assumes median conditions subsequent to the date of forecast.
Runoff probability ranges are statistically derived from historical data.
The 80% probability range is comprised of the 90% exceedence level value
and the 10% exceedence level value.
The actual runoff should fall within the stated limits eight times out of ten.
Forecast point names are based on USGS gage names.
For more information please contact:
John King at (916) 574-2637 kingjj@water.ca.gov
Steve Nemeth at (916) 574-2634 nemeth@water.ca.gov
Dave Rizzardo at (916) 574-2617 daver@water.ca.gov
