B120.200505 (05/09/05 1330)
Department of Water Resources
California Cooperative Snow Surveys
May 1, 2005 FORECAST
OF UNIMPAIRED RUNOFF
(in thousands of acre-feet)
April-July Forecast
April Percent 80%
thru of Probability
July Average Range
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NORTH COAST
Trinity River at Lewiston Lake 680 103%
Scott River near Fort Jones 150 75%
SACRAMENTO RIVER
Sacramento River above Shasta Lake 310 104%
McCloud River above Shasta Lake 410 103%
Pit River above Shasta Lake 910 83%
Total inflow to Shasta Lake 1710 92% 1490 - 2010
Sacramento River above Bend Bridge 2320 92% 2020 - 2770
Feather River at Oroville 1730 93% 1510 - 2050
Yuba River at Smartville 1080 103% 970 - 1240
American River below Folsom Lake 1500 117% 1360 - 1680
SAN JOAQUIN RIVER
Cosumnes River at Michigan Bar 150 116% 120 - 180
Mokelumne River inflow to Pardee 600 128% 560 - 670
Stanislaus River below Goodwin Res. 970 136% 880 - 1070
Tuolumne River below La Grange 1750 142% 1660 - 1910
Merced River below Merced Falls 940 148% 880 - 1020
San Joaquin River inflow to Millerton Lk 1810 143% 1700 - 1940
TULARE LAKE
Kings River below Pine Flat Res. 1720 139% 1640 - 1830
Kaweah River below Terminus Res. 380 131% 360 - 420
Tule River below Lake Success 78 120% 70 - 92
Kern River inflow to Lake Isabella 650 138% 610 - 720
NORTH LAHONTAN
Truckee River,Tahoe to Farad accretions 290 106%
Lake Tahoe Rise, in feet 1.5 104%
West Carson River at Woodfords 70 126%
East Carson River near Gardnerville 245 129%
West Walker River below Little Walker 195 127%
East Walker River near Bridgeport 95 145%
Water-Year Forecast and Monthly Distribution
Oct Aug Water 80%
thru Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul & Year Probability
Jan Sep Range
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Inflow to Shasta 1535 500 790 600 525 340 245 410 4945 4670 - 5405
Sacramento, Bend 2465 735 1240 875 700 425 320 520 7280 6910 - 8020
Feather, Oroville 750 325 685 590 640 310 190 150 3640 3395 - 4030
Yuba, Smartville 345 155 355 320 500 210 50 45 1980 1855 - 2190
American, Folsom 500 225 520 465 640 320 75 25 2770 2620 - 3040
Cosumnes, Mich.Bar 99 48 118 83 50 13 4 2 417 385 - 450
Mokelumne, Pardee 115 65 120 125 260 175 40 5 905 860 - 980
Stanislaus, Gdw. 230 110 195 215 405 270 80 25 1530 1430 - 1640
Tuolumne, LaGrange 440 190 325 305 660 585 200 40 2745 2650 - 2920
Merced, McClure 280 105 195 155 365 320 100 35 1555 1480 - 1640
San Joaquin, Mil. 300 135 225 255 685 620 250 90 2560 2420 - 2720
Kings, Pine Flat 240 85 170 215 640 595 270 95 2310 2220 - 2430
Kaweah, Terminus 70 26 59 68 151 125 36 15 550 520 - 600
Tule, Success 34 11 27 27 30 16 5 3 153 145 - 170
Kern, Isabella 110 50 90 130 235 195 90 55 955 910 - 1040
Notes:
50 year averages are based on years 1951 to 2000.
Unimpaired runoff represents the natural water production of a river basin,
unaltered by upsteam diversions, storage, or by export or import of water
to or from other watersheds.
Forecasted runoff assumes median conditions subsequent to the date of forecast.
Runoff probability ranges are statistically derived from historical data.
The 80% probability range is comprised of the 90% exceedence level value
and the 10% exceedence level value.
The actual runoff should fall within the stated limits eight times out of ten.
Forecast point names are based on USGS gage names.
For more information please contact:
Dave Rizzardo at (916) 574-2617 daver@water.ca.gov
Steve Nemeth at (916) 574-2634 nemeth@water.ca.gov
John King at (916) 574-2637 kingjj@water.ca.gov
