B120.200504 (04/21/05 0732)
Department of Water Resources
California Cooperative Snow Surveys
Apr 1, 2005 FORECAST
OF UNIMPAIRED RUNOFF
(in thousands of acre-feet)
April-July Forecast
April Percent 80%
thru of Probability
July Average Range
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NORTH COAST
Trinity River at Lewiston Lake 660 100%
Scott River near Fort Jones 145 73%
SACRAMENTO RIVER
Sacramento River above Shasta Lake 295 99%
McCloud River above Shasta Lake 390 98%
Pit River above Shasta Lake 860 79%
Total inflow to Shasta Lake 1620 88% 1260 - 2260
Sacramento River above Bend Bridge 2200 87% 1680 - 3120
Feather River at Oroville 1710 91% 1370 - 2410
Yuba River at Smartville 1100 105% 900 - 1470
American River below Folsom Lake 1510 118% 1300 - 1970
SAN JOAQUIN RIVER
Cosumnes River at Michigan Bar 150 116% 110 - 220
Mokelumne River inflow to Pardee 610 130% 520 - 740
Stanislaus River below Goodwin Res. 980 137% 830 - 1160
Tuolumne River below La Grange 1770 144% 1620 - 2050
Merced River below Merced Falls 980 155% 830 - 1120
San Joaquin River inflow to Millerton Lk 1840 146% 1670 - 2090
TULARE LAKE
Kings River below Pine Flat Res. 1720 139% 1560 - 1940
Kaweah River below Terminus Res. 390 135% 365 - 470
Tule River below Lake Success 80 123% 70 - 110
Kern River inflow to Lake Isabella 640 136% 570 - 760
NORTH LAHONTAN
Truckee River,Tahoe to Farad accretions 280 103%
Lake Tahoe Rise, in feet 1.5 104%
West Carson River at Woodfords 70 126%
East Carson River near Gardnerville 240 126%
West Walker River below Little Walker 200 130%
East Walker River near Bridgeport 90 138%
Water-Year Forecast and Monthly Distribution
Oct Aug Water 80%
thru Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul & Year Probability
Jan Sep Range
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Inflow to Shasta 1535 500 790 650 465 295 210 410 4855 4400 - 5660
Sacramento, Bend 2465 735 1240 850 655 395 300 520 7160 6515 - 8290
Feather, Oroville 750 325 685 680 585 275 170 150 3620 3260 - 4380
Yuba, Smartville 345 155 355 430 445 180 45 45 2000 1790 - 2390
American, Folsom 500 225 520 550 610 285 65 25 2780 2560 - 3266
Cosumnes, Mich.Bar 99 48 118 75 55 17 3 2 417 375 - 490
Mokelumne, Pardee 115 65 120 165 245 165 35 5 915 820 - 1050
Stanislaus, Gdw. 230 110 195 265 385 255 75 25 1540 1380 - 1740
Tuolumne, LaGrange 440 190 325 410 620 550 190 40 2765 2610 - 3080
Merced, McClure 280 105 195 230 360 290 100 35 1595 1430 - 1750
San Joaquin, Mil. 300 135 225 370 650 585 235 90 2590 2390 - 2930
Kings, Pine Flat 240 85 170 310 600 560 250 95 2310 2130 - 2540
Kaweah, Terminus 70 26 59 90 145 120 35 15 560 530 - 650
Tule, Success 34 11 27 30 28 17 5 3 155 145 - 190
Kern, Isabella 110 50 90 125 235 195 85 55 945 860 - 1080
Notes:
50 year averages are based on years 1951 to 2000.
Unimpaired runoff represents the natural water production of a river basin,
unaltered by upsteam diversions, storage, or by export or import of water
to or from other watersheds.
Forecasted runoff assumes median conditions subsequent to the date of forecast.
Runoff probability ranges are statistically derived from historical data.
The 80% probability range is comprised of the 90% exceedence level value
and the 10% exceedence level value.
The actual runoff should fall within the stated limits eight times out of ten.
Forecast point names are based on USGS gage names.
For more information please contact:
Dave Rizzardo at (916) 574-2617 daver@water.ca.gov
Steve Nemeth at (916) 574-2634 nemeth@water.ca.gov
John King at (916) 574-2637 kingjj@water.ca.gov
