B120.200502 (02/08/05 1356)
Department of Water Resources
California Cooperative Snow Surveys
Feb 1, 2005 FORECAST
OF UNIMPAIRED RUNOFF
(in thousands of acre-feet)
April-July Forecast
April Percent 80%
thru of Probability
July Average Range
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NORTH COAST
Trinity River at Lewiston Lake 640 97%
Scott River near Fort Jones 175 88%
SACRAMENTO RIVER
Sacramento River above Shasta Lake 290 97%
McCloud River above Shasta Lake 390 98%
Pit River above Shasta Lake 900 83%
Total inflow to Shasta Lake 1700 92% 1140 - 2650
Sacramento River above Bend Bridge 2250 89% 1370 - 3620
Feather River at Oroville 1700 91% 1100 - 2910
Yuba River at Smartville 1080 103% 690 - 1790
American River below Folsom Lake 1410 110% 910 - 2160
SAN JOAQUIN RIVER
Cosumnes River at Michigan Bar 140 108% 80 - 270
Mokelumne River inflow to Pardee 570 122% 430 - 840
Stanislaus River below Goodwin Res. 900 126% 630 - 1210
Tuolumne River below La Grange 1630 133% 1250 - 2130
Merced River below Merced Falls 870 137% 660 - 1140
San Joaquin River inflow to Millerton Lk 1730 137% 1280 - 2300
TULARE LAKE
Kings River below Pine Flat Res. 1700 138% 1240 - 2300
Kaweah River below Terminus Res. 380 131% 270 - 560
Tule River below Lake Success 75 116% 40 - 125
Kern River inflow to Lake Isabella 620 132% 410 - 940
NORTH LAHONTAN
Truckee River,Tahoe to Farad accretions 280 103%
Lake Tahoe Rise, in feet 1.4 97%
West Carson River at Woodfords 65 117%
East Carson River near Gardnerville 240 126%
West Walker River below Little Walker 190 124%
East Walker River near Bridgeport 85 130%
Water-Year Forecast and Monthly Distribution
Oct Aug Water 80%
thru Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul & Year Probability
Jan Sep Range
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Inflow to Shasta 1535 700 750 670 500 300 230 410 5095 4020 - 7085
Sacramento, Bend 2465 1150 1050 860 670 420 300 520 7435 5490 - 10465
Feather, Oroville 750 400 600 650 590 300 160 150 3600 2535 - 5630
Yuba, Smartville 345 250 350 390 430 210 50 45 2070 1445 - 3205
American, Folsom 500 310 400 490 560 290 70 25 2645 1880 - 3885
Cosumnes, Mich.Bar 99 70 75 75 45 17 3 2 386 260 - 655
Mokelumne, Pardee 115 70 95 140 235 160 35 10 860 670 - 1220
Stanislaus, Gdw. 230 120 140 240 350 240 70 25 1415 1050 - 1840
Tuolumne, LaGrange 440 180 230 350 570 510 200 40 2520 2030 - 3160
Merced, McClure 280 140 160 180 315 280 95 35 1485 1190 - 1850
San Joaquin, Mil. 300 150 180 325 590 565 250 90 2450 1890 - 3160
Kings, Pine Flat 240 130 160 290 590 560 260 95 2325 1760 - 3070
Kaweah, Terminus 70 50 60 85 140 115 40 15 575 420 - 820
Tule, Success 34 30 35 34 25 11 5 3 177 110 - 275
Kern, Isabella 110 50 85 130 220 180 90 55 920 640 - 1350
Notes:
50 year averages are based on years 1951 to 2000.
Unimpaired runoff represents the natural water production of a river basin,
unaltered by upsteam diversions, storage, or by export or import of water
to or from other watersheds.
Forecasted runoff assumes median conditions subsequent to the date of forecast.
Runoff probability ranges are statistically derived from historical data.
The 80% probability range is comprised of the 90% exceedence level value
and the 10% exceedence level value.
The actual runoff should fall within the stated limits eight times out of ten.
Forecast point names are based on USGS gage names.
For more information please contact:
Dave Rizzardo at (916) 574-2617 daver@water.ca.gov
Steve Nemeth at (916) 574-2634 nemeth@water.ca.gov
