B120 (02/08/16 1456)

Department of Water Resources California Cooperative Snow Surveys February 1, 2016 FORECAST OF UNIMPAIRED RUNOFF (in thousands of acre-feet) April-July Forecast April Percent 80% thru of Probability July Average Range -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- NORTH COAST Trinity River at Lewiston Lake 700 108% 480 - 1100 Scott River near Fort Jones 157 91% SACRAMENTO RIVER Sacramento River above Shasta Lake 260 86% McCloud River above Shasta Lake 350 89% Pit River above Shasta Lake 1010 97% Total inflow to Shasta Lake 1680 93% 1220 - 2680 Sacramento River above Bend Bridge 2280 92% 1580 - 3950 Feather River at Oroville 1690 96% 990 - 3130 Yuba River at Smartsville 980 98% 580 - 1670 American River below Folsom Lake 1300 106% 750 - 2320 SAN JOAQUIN RIVER Cosumnes River at Michigan Bar 135 105% 65 - 280 Mokelumne River inflow to Pardee 540 115% 360 - 830 Stanislaus River below Goodwin Res. 770 110% 510 - 1230 Tuolumne River below La Grange 1360 111% 900 - 2120 Merced River below Merced Falls 620 97% 440 - 1130 San Joaquin River inflow to Millerton Lk 1170 93% 790 - 1990 TULARE LAKE Kings River below Pine Flat Res. 1070 87% 700 - 1900 Kaweah River below Terminus Res. 250 86% 150 - 490 Tule River below Lake Success 48 76% 22 - 115 Kern River inflow to Lake Isabella 350 75% 200 - 830 NORTH LAHONTAN Truckee River,Tahoe to Farad accretions 240 94% Lake Tahoe Rise, in feet 1.2 87% West Carson River at Woodfords 55 104% East Carson River near Gardnerville 210 113% West Walker River below Little Walker 155 100% East Walker River near Bridgeport 60 95% Water-Year (WY) Forecast and Monthly Distribution Oct Water 80% WY thru Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Year Probability % Jan Range Avg -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Trinity, Lewiston 300 160 188 250 285 125 40 13 9 1370 1030 - 1985 100 Inflow to Shasta 1631 840 850 640 490 315 235 215 214 5430 4385 - 7695 91 Sacramento, Bend 2772 1000 1100 880 670 420 310 270 258 7680 6170 - 11275 88 Feather, Oroville 1022 520 600 670 600 280 140 100 83 4015 2850 - 6565 89 Yuba, Smartville 530 230 295 360 400 180 40 20 20 2075 1440 - 3165 89 American, Folsom 581 290 372 450 530 270 50 15 12 2570 1825 - 4135 96 Cosumnes, Mich.Bar 69 65 74 70 45 16 4 1 1 345 200 - 645 90 Mokelumne, Pardee 97 60 86 140 230 150 20 4 3 790 550 - 1170 104 Stanislaus, Gdw. 159 90 125 210 330 190 40 11 5 1160 820 - 1760 99 Tuolumne, LaGrange 297 140 178 300 520 430 110 25 10 2010 1430 - 2970 103 Merced, McClure 120 60 89 150 260 170 40 11 5 905 670 - 1560 90 San Joaquin, Mil. 126 80 132 240 440 370 120 40 17 1565 1090 - 2580 85 Kings, Pine Flat 110 60 102 210 410 340 110 32 16 1390 940 - 2390 80 Kaweah, Terminus 37 20 36 65 105 65 15 4 3 350 220 - 660 77 Tule, Success 24 10 17 22 17 7 2 1 0 100 55 - 210 68 Kern, Isabella 51 30 42 80 130 100 40 19 13 505 310 - 1130 69 Notes: 50 year averages are based on years 1961 to 2010. Unimpaired runoff represents the natural water production of a river basin, unaltered by upsteam diversions, storage, or by export or import of water to or from other watersheds. Groundwater changes due to human activity or not considered. Forecasted runoff assumes median conditions subsequent to the date of forecast. Runoff probability ranges are statistically derived from historical data. The 80% probability range is comprised of the 90% exceedance level value and the 10% exceedance level value. The actual runoff should fall within the stated limits eight times out of ten. Forecast point names are based on USGS gage names. For more information please contact: John King (916) 574-2637 John.J.King@water.ca.gov Steve Nemeth (916) 574-2634 Stephen.Nemeth@water.ca.gov Dave Rizzardo (916) 574-2983 David.Rizzardo@water.ca.gov Andy Reising (916) 574-2181 Andrew.Reising@water.ca.gov Sean de Guzman (916) 574-2208 Sean.deGuzman@water.ca.gov