B120 (04/08/15 1140)

Department of Water Resources California Cooperative Snow Surveys April 1, 2015 FORECAST OF UNIMPAIRED RUNOFF (in thousands of acre-feet) April-July Forecast April Percent 80% thru of Probability July Average Range -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- NORTH COAST Trinity River at Lewiston Lake 155 24% 75 - 380 Scott River near Fort Jones 39 23% SACRAMENTO RIVER Sacramento River above Shasta Lake 90 30% McCloud River above Shasta Lake 195 50% Pit River above Shasta Lake 560 54% Total inflow to Shasta Lake 860 48% 600 - 1490 Sacramento River above Bend Bridge 1190 48% 800 - 1800 Feather River at Oroville 460 26% 320 - 1110 Yuba River at Smartsville 220 22% 145 - 550 American River below Folsom Lake 210 17% 165 - 650 SAN JOAQUIN RIVER Cosumnes River at Michigan Bar 18 14% 7 - 75 Mokelumne River inflow to Pardee 95 20% 65 - 220 Stanislaus River below Goodwin Res. 160 23% 75 - 370 Tuolumne River below La Grange 260 21% 175 - 490 Merced River below Merced Falls 90 14% 65 - 270 San Joaquin River inflow to Millerton Lk 170 14% 135 - 420 TULARE LAKE Kings River below Pine Flat Res. 175 14% 140 - 400 Kaweah River below Terminus Res. 50 17% 35 - 110 Tule River below Lake Success 4 6% 1 - 26 Kern River inflow to Lake Isabella 65 14% 45 - 170 NORTH LAHONTAN Truckee River,Tahoe to Farad accretions 40 16% Lake Tahoe Rise, in feet 0.2 14% West Carson River at Woodfords 8 15% East Carson River near Gardnerville 40 22% West Walker River below Little Walker 32 21% East Walker River near Bridgeport 7 11% Water-Year (WY) Forecast and Monthly Distribution Oct Water 80% WY thru Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Year Probability % Jan Range Avg -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Trinity, Lewiston 418 294 67 65 66 21 3 0 0 934 854 - 1170 68 Inflow to Shasta 1621 720 273 285 250 170 155 155 146 3775 3465 - 4515 63 Sacramento, Bend 2652 1068 348 425 320 245 200 183 179 5620 5150 - 6350 64 Feather, Oroville 916 442 157 170 135 85 70 62 53 2090 1920 - 2770 46 Yuba, Smartville 398 204 102 105 80 25 10 3 3 930 850 - 1280 40 American, Folsom 332 242 86 105 85 20 0 0 0 870 825 - 1320 32 Cosumnes, Mich.Bar 22 38 9 10 6 2 0 0 0 87 76 - 145 23 Mokelumne, Pardee 43 65 30 36 45 12 2 0 0 233 203 - 360 31 Stanislaus, Gdw. 64 92 37 80 61 15 4 0 0 353 268 - 570 30 Tuolumne, LaGrange 106 114 57 95 125 30 10 2 1 540 452 - 770 28 Merced, McClure 22 25 19 35 39 13 3 0 0 156 131 - 340 15 San Joaquin, Mil. 47 43 34 55 70 30 15 8 3 305 265 - 565 17 Kings, Pine Flat 49 46 42 65 75 25 10 3 5 320 280 - 555 19 Kaweah, Terminus 15 17 13 20 23 5 2 1 1 97 81 - 160 21 Tule, Success 4 3 1 2 2 0 0 0 0 12 9 - 34 8 Kern, Isabella 36 15 13 20 20 17 8 6 5 140 115 - 255 19 Notes: 50 year averages are based on years 1961 to 2010. Unimpaired runoff represents the natural water production of a river basin, unaltered by upsteam diversions, storage, or by export or import of water to or from other watersheds. Groundwater changes due to human activity or not considered. Forecasted runoff assumes median conditions subsequent to the date of forecast. Runoff probability ranges are statistically derived from historical data. The 80% probability range is comprised of the 90% exceedance level value and the 10% exceedance level value. The actual runoff should fall within the stated limits eight times out of ten. Forecast point names are based on USGS gage names. For more information please contact: John King (916) 574-2637 John.J.King@water.ca.gov Steve Nemeth (916) 574-2634 Stephen.Nemeth@water.ca.gov Dave Rizzardo (916) 574-2983 David.Rizzardo@water.ca.gov Andy Reising (916) 574-2181 Andrew.Reising@water.ca.gov Sean de Guzman (916) 574-2208 Sean.deGuzman@water.ca.gov