B120 (04/08/16 1409)

Department of Water Resources California Cooperative Snow Surveys April 1, 2016 FORECAST OF UNIMPAIRED RUNOFF (in thousands of acre-feet) April-July Forecast April Percent 80% thru of Probability July Average Range -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- NORTH COAST Trinity River at Lewiston Lake 650 100% 520 - 870 Scott River near Fort Jones 174 101% SACRAMENTO RIVER Sacramento River above Shasta Lake 260 86% McCloud River above Shasta Lake 370 94% Pit River above Shasta Lake 980 94% Total inflow to Shasta Lake 1680 93% 1340 - 2480 Sacramento River above Bend Bridge 2360 95% 1830 - 3530 Feather River at Oroville 1540 88% 1160 - 2390 Yuba River at Smartsville 890 89% 620 - 1290 American River below Folsom Lake 1180 96% 900 - 1830 SAN JOAQUIN RIVER Cosumnes River at Michigan Bar 110 86% 65 - 230 Mokelumne River inflow to Pardee 460 98% 380 - 610 Stanislaus River below Goodwin Res. 680 97% 560 - 930 Tuolumne River below La Grange 1140 93% 970 - 1530 Merced River below Merced Falls 520 82% 420 - 760 San Joaquin River inflow to Millerton Lk 930 74% 740 - 1270 TULARE LAKE Kings River below Pine Flat Res. 890 72% 730 - 1190 Kaweah River below Terminus Res. 210 72% 157 - 330 Tule River below Lake Success 33 52% 19 - 80 Kern River inflow to Lake Isabella 260 56% 190 - 380 NORTH LAHONTAN Truckee River,Tahoe to Farad accretions 240 94% Lake Tahoe Rise, in feet 1.2 87% West Carson River at Woodfords 48 91% East Carson River near Gardnerville 190 102% West Walker River below Little Walker 135 87% East Walker River near Bridgeport 40 63% Water-Year (WY) Forecast and Monthly Distribution Oct Water 80% WY thru Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Year Probability % Jan Range Avg -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Trinity, Lewiston 300 181 447 235 265 115 35 12 10 1600 1465 - 1830 116 Inflow to Shasta 1631 562 1647 660 490 300 230 215 210 5945 5515 - 6885 99 Sacramento, Bend 2772 804 2423 930 680 435 315 276 275 8910 8244 - 10225 102 Feather, Oroville 1032 434 1511 620 530 265 125 93 80 4690 4270 - 5635 104 Yuba, Smartville 564 203 816 340 380 136 34 19 18 2510 2225 - 2945 108 American, Folsom 581 285 812 430 485 220 45 12 10 2880 2592 - 3580 107 Cosumnes, Mich.Bar 69 42 146 59 37 11 3 2 1 370 323 - 495 96 Mokelumne, Pardee 97 66 161 127 205 113 15 3 3 790 708 - 942 104 Stanislaus, Gdw. 159 90 250 200 280 163 37 11 5 1195 1070 - 1455 102 Tuolumne, LaGrange 298 144 342 265 445 350 80 15 6 1945 1770 - 2345 100 Merced, McClure 120 59 170 130 220 140 30 7 4 880 775 - 1130 87 San Joaquin, Mil. 126 81 184 200 360 280 90 26 13 1360 1160 - 1715 74 Kings, Pine Flat 110 78 147 180 370 260 80 23 12 1260 1090 - 1570 73 Kaweah, Terminus 37 28 44 56 88 53 13 4 2 325 270 - 450 71 Tule, Success 24 16 17 14 13 5 1 0 0 90 76 - 140 61 Kern, Isabella 51 26 38 65 90 75 30 15 10 400 322 - 530 55 Notes: 50 year averages are based on years 1961 to 2010. Unimpaired runoff represents the natural water production of a river basin, unaltered by upsteam diversions, storage, or by export or import of water to or from other watersheds. Groundwater changes due to human activity or not considered. Forecasted runoff assumes median conditions subsequent to the date of forecast. Runoff probability ranges are statistically derived from historical data. The 80% probability range is comprised of the 90% exceedance level value and the 10% exceedance level value. The actual runoff should fall within the stated limits eight times out of ten. Forecast point names are based on USGS gage names. For more information please contact: John King (916) 574-2637 John.J.King@water.ca.gov Steve Nemeth (916) 574-2634 Stephen.Nemeth@water.ca.gov Dave Rizzardo (916) 574-2983 David.Rizzardo@water.ca.gov Andy Reising (916) 574-2181 Andrew.Reising@water.ca.gov Sean de Guzman (916) 574-2208 Sean.deGuzman@water.ca.gov