B120 (02/09/15 1346)

Department of Water Resources California Cooperative Snow Surveys February 1, 2015 FORECAST OF UNIMPAIRED RUNOFF (in thousands of acre-feet) April-July Forecast April Percent 80% thru of Probability July Average Range -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- NORTH COAST Trinity River at Lewiston Lake 310 48% 90 - 710 Scott River near Fort Jones 61 35% SACRAMENTO RIVER Sacramento River above Shasta Lake 160 53% McCloud River above Shasta Lake 260 66% Pit River above Shasta Lake 700 67% Total inflow to Shasta Lake 1150 64% 690 - 2150 Sacramento River above Bend Bridge 1550 62% 890 - 3220 Feather River at Oroville 860 49% 380 - 2300 Yuba River at Smartsville 510 51% 190 - 1200 American River below Folsom Lake 540 44% 190 - 1560 SAN JOAQUIN RIVER Cosumnes River at Michigan Bar 45 35% 6 - 225 Mokelumne River inflow to Pardee 230 49% 85 - 530 Stanislaus River below Goodwin Res. 350 50% 100 - 810 Tuolumne River below La Grange 640 52% 270 - 1430 Merced River below Merced Falls 270 42% 105 - 780 San Joaquin River inflow to Millerton Lk 550 44% 270 - 1370 TULARE LAKE Kings River below Pine Flat Res. 540 44% 260 - 1340 Kaweah River below Terminus Res. 130 45% 58 - 370 Tule River below Lake Success 9 14% 2 - 99 Kern River inflow to Lake Isabella 155 33% 80 - 640 NORTH LAHONTAN Truckee River,Tahoe to Farad accretions 75 29% Lake Tahoe Rise, in feet 0.5 36% West Carson River at Woodfords 21 40% East Carson River near Gardnerville 95 51% West Walker River below Little Walker 70 45% East Walker River near Bridgeport 16 25% Water-Year (WY) Forecast and Monthly Distribution Oct Water 80% WY thru Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Year Probability % Jan Range Avg -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Trinity, Lewiston 418 170 140 130 120 45 15 4 3 1045 600 - 1855 76 Inflow to Shasta 1621 750 600 420 320 225 185 170 159 4450 3305 - 7115 74 Sacramento, Bend 2652 1200 930 555 435 315 245 215 213 6760 4810 - 10690 77 Feather, Oroville 916 470 430 350 280 140 90 75 64 2815 1715 - 5495 62 Yuba, Smartville 398 280 240 215 205 70 20 12 10 1450 765 - 2710 62 American, Folsom 332 310 250 240 225 65 10 1 2 1435 690 - 3130 53 Cosumnes, Mich.Bar 22 53 50 25 15 5 0 0 0 170 40 - 765 44 Mokelumne, Pardee 43 61 65 85 115 27 3 1 0 400 170 - 870 53 Stanislaus, Gdw. 64 60 83 130 160 50 10 2 1 560 200 - 1140 48 Tuolumne, LaGrange 106 93 130 190 290 135 25 8 3 980 470 - 1960 50 Merced, McClure 22 40 60 90 120 50 10 3 0 395 160 - 1050 39 San Joaquin, Mil. 47 58 93 150 230 130 40 15 7 770 400 - 1750 42 Kings, Pine Flat 49 45 65 145 230 130 35 13 8 720 370 - 1720 42 Kaweah, Terminus 15 18 24 40 60 25 5 2 1 190 90 - 520 42 Tule, Success 4 6 7 5 3 1 0 0 0 26 5 - 250 18 Kern, Isabella 36 24 32 45 60 35 15 10 8 265 150 - 990 36 Notes: 50 year averages are based on years 1961 to 2010. Unimpaired runoff represents the natural water production of a river basin, unaltered by upsteam diversions, storage, or by export or import of water to or from other watersheds. Groundwater changes due to human activity or not considered. Forecasted runoff assumes median conditions subsequent to the date of forecast. Runoff probability ranges are statistically derived from historical data. The 80% probability range is comprised of the 90% exceedance level value and the 10% exceedance level value. The actual runoff should fall within the stated limits eight times out of ten. Forecast point names are based on USGS gage names. For more information please contact: John King (916) 574-2637 John.J.King@water.ca.gov Steve Nemeth (916) 574-2634 Stephen.Nemeth@water.ca.gov Dave Rizzardo (916) 574-2983 David.Rizzardo@water.ca.gov Andy Reising (916) 574-2181 Andrew.Reising@water.ca.gov Sean de Guzman (916) 574-2208 Sean.deGuzman@water.ca.gov