B120 (03/09/15 1321)

Department of Water Resources California Cooperative Snow Surveys March 1, 2015 FORECAST OF UNIMPAIRED RUNOFF (in thousands of acre-feet) April-July Forecast April Percent 80% thru of Probability July Average Range -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- NORTH COAST Trinity River at Lewiston Lake 230 35% 80 - 540 Scott River near Fort Jones 44 25% SACRAMENTO RIVER Sacramento River above Shasta Lake 120 40% McCloud River above Shasta Lake 240 61% Pit River above Shasta Lake 640 61% Total inflow to Shasta Lake 1050 58% 670 - 1850 Sacramento River above Bend Bridge 1450 58% 870 - 2680 Feather River at Oroville 680 39% 350 - 1720 Yuba River at Smartsville 360 36% 160 - 910 American River below Folsom Lake 380 31% 190 - 1080 SAN JOAQUIN RIVER Cosumnes River at Michigan Bar 35 27% 6 - 125 Mokelumne River inflow to Pardee 170 36% 80 - 380 Stanislaus River below Goodwin Res. 260 37% 95 - 590 Tuolumne River below La Grange 460 38% 250 - 950 Merced River below Merced Falls 155 24% 95 - 480 San Joaquin River inflow to Millerton Lk 320 25% 220 - 850 TULARE LAKE Kings River below Pine Flat Res. 310 25% 220 - 860 Kaweah River below Terminus Res. 90 31% 52 - 200 Tule River below Lake Success 6 9% 2 - 53 Kern River inflow to Lake Isabella 105 23% 70 - 365 NORTH LAHONTAN Truckee River,Tahoe to Farad accretions 60 23% Lake Tahoe Rise, in feet 0.4 29% West Carson River at Woodfords 15 28% East Carson River near Gardnerville 78 42% West Walker River below Little Walker 60 39% East Walker River near Bridgeport 9 14% Water-Year (WY) Forecast and Monthly Distribution Oct Water 80% WY thru Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Year Probability % Jan Range Avg -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Trinity, Lewiston 418 294 110 95 95 30 10 3 0 1055 830 - 1520 77 Inflow to Shasta 1621 720 560 350 300 215 185 170 159 4280 3565 - 5760 72 Sacramento, Bend 2652 1068 800 510 405 300 235 200 200 6370 5230 - 8370 73 Feather, Oroville 916 442 370 270 210 115 85 67 60 2535 1925 - 3975 56 Yuba, Smartville 398 204 190 165 135 45 15 9 9 1170 830 - 1855 50 American, Folsom 332 242 200 180 150 45 5 0 1 1155 830 - 2080 43 Cosumnes, Mich.Bar 22 38 30 20 10 4 1 0 0 125 70 - 295 32 Mokelumne, Pardee 43 65 51 70 80 18 2 1 0 330 210 - 610 44 Stanislaus, Gdw. 64 92 81 105 110 40 5 2 1 500 280 - 900 43 Tuolumne, LaGrange 106 114 130 160 205 80 15 4 1 815 540 - 1390 42 Merced, McClure 22 25 53 55 75 20 5 0 0 255 170 - 650 25 San Joaquin, Mil. 47 43 79 95 140 65 20 11 5 505 370 - 1100 28 Kings, Pine Flat 49 46 70 95 135 60 20 9 6 490 370 - 1200 28 Kaweah, Terminus 15 17 25 30 40 16 4 2 1 150 100 - 300 33 Tule, Success 4 3 5 3 2 1 0 0 0 18 10 - 105 12 Kern, Isabella 36 14 25 30 40 25 10 8 7 195 140 - 560 27 Notes: 50 year averages are based on years 1961 to 2010. Unimpaired runoff represents the natural water production of a river basin, unaltered by upsteam diversions, storage, or by export or import of water to or from other watersheds. Groundwater changes due to human activity or not considered. Forecasted runoff assumes median conditions subsequent to the date of forecast. Runoff probability ranges are statistically derived from historical data. The 80% probability range is comprised of the 90% exceedance level value and the 10% exceedance level value. The actual runoff should fall within the stated limits eight times out of ten. Forecast point names are based on USGS gage names. For more information please contact: John King (916) 574-2637 John.J.King@water.ca.gov Steve Nemeth (916) 574-2634 Stephen.Nemeth@water.ca.gov Dave Rizzardo (916) 574-2983 David.Rizzardo@water.ca.gov Andy Reising (916) 574-2181 Andrew.Reising@water.ca.gov Sean de Guzman (916) 574-2208 Sean.deGuzman@water.ca.gov