B120 (05/08/14 1040)

Department of Water Resources California Cooperative Snow Surveys May 1, 2014 FORECAST OF UNIMPAIRED RUNOFF (in thousands of acre-feet) April-July Forecast April Percent 80% thru of Probability July Average Range -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- NORTH COAST Trinity River at Lewiston Lake 160 25% 120 - 290 Scott River near Fort Jones 32 19% SACRAMENTO RIVER Sacramento River above Shasta Lake 100 33% McCloud River above Shasta Lake 210 54% Pit River above Shasta Lake 550 53% Total inflow to Shasta Lake 900 50% 740 - 1130 Sacramento River above Bend Bridge 1210 49% 1070 - 1500 Feather River at Oroville 540 31% 460 - 780 Yuba River at Smartsville 320 32% 280 - 410 American River below Folsom Lake 390 32% 340 - 460 SAN JOAQUIN RIVER Cosumnes River at Michigan Bar 25 20% 20 - 50 Mokelumne River inflow to Pardee 160 35% 120 - 220 Stanislaus River below Goodwin Res. 240 34% 195 - 340 Tuolumne River below La Grange 430 35% 330 - 590 Merced River below Merced Falls 175 28% 135 - 280 San Joaquin River inflow to Millerton Lk 370 29% 290 - 540 TULARE LAKE Kings River below Pine Flat Res. 400 32% 310 - 520 Kaweah River below Terminus Res. 72 25% 61 - 115 Tule River below Lake Success 7 11% 5 - 11 Kern River inflow to Lake Isabella 95 20% 80 - 140 NORTH LAHONTAN Truckee River,Tahoe to Farad accretions 60 23% Lake Tahoe Rise, in feet 0.4 29% West Carson River at Woodfords 20 38% East Carson River near Gardnerville 70 38% West Walker River below Little Walker 60 39% East Walker River near Bridgeport 8 13% Water-Year (WY) Forecast and Monthly Distribution Oct Water 80% WY thru Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Year Probability % Jan Range Avg -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Trinity, Lewiston 38 49 154 80 60 17 3 0 0 401 361 - 535 29 Inflow to Shasta 697 284 588 356 200 175 169 145 141 2755 2525 - 3080 46 Sacramento, Bend 922 419 877 529 260 230 191 160 162 3750 3570 - 4135 43 Feather, Oroville 308 258 462 290 110 75 65 60 52 1680 1545 - 1975 37 Yuba, Smartville 91 188 245 192 95 25 8 1 0 845 804 - 945 36 American, Folsom 48 237 232 233 125 29 3 0 0 907 857 - 990 34 Cosumnes, Mich.Bar 7 20 28 19 5 1 0 0 0 80 75 - 108 21 Mokelumne, Pardee 9 33 47 76 74 9 1 0 0 249 209 - 310 33 Stanislaus, Gdw. 25 36 62 111 95 31 3 0 0 363 318 - 470 31 Tuolumne, LaGrange 20 52 94 170 200 50 10 3 1 600 497 - 775 31 Merced, McClure 10 13 33 75 75 20 5 0 0 231 191 - 345 23 San Joaquin, Mil. 45 23 46 111 170 70 19 11 5 500 410 - 680 27 Kings, Pine Flat 39 20 45 125 185 70 20 10 6 520 426 - 650 30 Kaweah, Terminus 8 6 12 28 31 10 3 1 1 100 88 - 146 22 Tule, Success 3 2 3 4 3 0 0 0 0 15 13 - 20 10 Kern, Isabella 37 11 17 26 38 21 10 8 7 175 157 - 225 24 Notes: 50 year averages are based on years 1961 to 2010. Unimpaired runoff represents the natural water production of a river basin, unaltered by upsteam diversions, storage, or by export or import of water to or from other watersheds. Groundwater changes due to human activity or not considered. Forecasted runoff assumes median conditions subsequent to the date of forecast. Runoff probability ranges are statistically derived from historical data. The 80% probability range is comprised of the 90% exceedance level value and the 10% exceedance level value. The actual runoff should fall within the stated limits eight times out of ten. Forecast point names are based on USGS gage names. For more information please contact: John King (916) 574-2637 John.J.King@water.ca.gov Steve Nemeth (916) 574-2634 Stephen.Nemeth@water.ca.gov Dave Rizzardo (916) 574-2983 David.Rizzardo@water.ca.gov Andy Reising (916) 574-2181 Andrew.Reising@water.ca.gov Sean de Guzman (916) 574-2208 Sean.deGuzman@water.ca.gov