B120 (05/09/16 1406)

Department of Water Resources California Cooperative Snow Surveys May 1, 2016 FORECAST OF UNIMPAIRED RUNOFF (in thousands of acre-feet) April-July Forecast April Percent 80% thru of Probability July Average Range -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- NORTH COAST Trinity River at Lewiston Lake 610 94% 510 - 770 Scott River near Fort Jones 194 112% SACRAMENTO RIVER Sacramento River above Shasta Lake 220 73% McCloud River above Shasta Lake 350 89% Pit River above Shasta Lake 950 91% Total inflow to Shasta Lake 1570 87% 1340 - 1970 Sacramento River above Bend Bridge 2150 87% 1850 - 2680 Feather River at Oroville 1470 84% 1200 - 1880 Yuba River at Smartsville 870 87% 730 - 1020 American River below Folsom Lake 1150 93% 980 - 1350 SAN JOAQUIN RIVER Cosumnes River at Michigan Bar 95 74% 60 - 145 Mokelumne River inflow to Pardee 450 96% 410 - 500 Stanislaus River below Goodwin Res. 670 96% 580 - 770 Tuolumne River below La Grange 1140 93% 1040 - 1310 Merced River below Merced Falls 530 83% 470 - 640 San Joaquin River inflow to Millerton Lk 940 75% 790 - 1110 TULARE LAKE Kings River below Pine Flat Res. 860 70% 760 - 980 Kaweah River below Terminus Res. 210 72% 175 - 270 Tule River below Lake Success 32 50% 25 - 54 Kern River inflow to Lake Isabella 230 49% 190 - 300 NORTH LAHONTAN Truckee River,Tahoe to Farad accretions 250 98% Lake Tahoe Rise, in feet 1.3 94% West Carson River at Woodfords 49 92% East Carson River near Gardnerville 180 97% West Walker River below Little Walker 135 87% East Walker River near Bridgeport 42 67% Water-Year (WY) Forecast and Monthly Distribution Oct Water 80% WY thru Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Year Probability % Jan Range Avg -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Trinity, Lewiston 300 181 447 259 230 95 26 10 7 1555 1450 - 1720 113 Inflow to Shasta 1631 562 1647 485 530 320 235 209 206 5825 5530 - 6335 97 Sacramento, Bend 2772 804 2423 687 705 443 315 268 263 8680 8305 - 9345 99 Feather, Oroville 1032 434 1511 543 550 250 127 97 81 4625 4320 - 5085 102 Yuba, Smartville 564 203 816 328 375 132 35 19 18 2490 2340 - 2650 107 American, Folsom 581 285 812 422 490 195 43 13 9 2850 2675 - 3060 106 Cosumnes, Mich.Bar 69 42 146 41 39 12 3 1 1 354 318 - 405 92 Mokelumne, Pardee 97 66 161 145 195 98 12 4 2 780 738 - 840 102 Stanislaus, Gdw. 159 90 250 221 280 140 29 11 5 1185 1090 - 1290 102 Tuolumne, LaGrange 298 144 342 319 450 315 56 15 6 1945 1837 - 2125 100 Merced, McClure 120 59 170 173 215 115 27 8 3 890 827 - 1010 88 San Joaquin, Mil. 126 81 184 232 365 255 88 30 14 1375 1200 - 1580 75 Kings, Pine Flat 110 78 147 226 340 220 74 23 12 1230 1120 - 1360 71 Kaweah, Terminus 37 28 44 55 90 53 12 4 2 325 288 - 390 71 Tule, Success 24 16 17 12 14 5 1 0 0 89 82 - 115 61 Kern, Isabella 51 26 38 48 83 70 29 15 10 370 325 - 450 50 Notes: 50 year averages are based on years 1961 to 2010. Unimpaired runoff represents the natural water production of a river basin, unaltered by upsteam diversions, storage, or by export or import of water to or from other watersheds. Groundwater changes due to human activity or not considered. Forecasted runoff assumes median conditions subsequent to the date of forecast. Runoff probability ranges are statistically derived from historical data. The 80% probability range is comprised of the 90% exceedance level value and the 10% exceedance level value. The actual runoff should fall within the stated limits eight times out of ten. Forecast point names are based on USGS gage names. For more information please contact: John King (916) 574-2637 John.J.King@water.ca.gov Steve Nemeth (916) 574-2634 Stephen.Nemeth@water.ca.gov Dave Rizzardo (916) 574-2983 David.Rizzardo@water.ca.gov Andy Reising (916) 574-2181 Andrew.Reising@water.ca.gov Sean de Guzman (916) 574-2208 Sean.deGuzman@water.ca.gov

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